Global Diethylene glycol (DEG) import average price fell 29% year-on-year in Q1 2026, but the quarterly trend was far from uniform. The first two months saw continued weakness due to sluggish demand, while March witnessed a broad rebound driven by geopolitical conflict. The quarter’s data capture a sudden shift in global DEG trade from "excess supply normalcy" to "supply disruption panic."
I. Overall Summary
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of transactions | 1,201 | 1,292 | -7.0% |
| Import value (USD) | $163 million | $228 million | -28.7% |
| Import volume (million kg) | 187.50 | 186.67 | +0.4% |
| Unit price ($/kg) | $0.87 | $1.22 | -29.0% |
| Number of importing countries | 63 | 65 | -2 |
Key finding: Import volume was nearly flat (+0.4%), but value dropped sharply by 28.7%, mainly due to a 29% decline in unit price. This reflects both the long‑term pressure of global DEG overcapacity and two distinct market shocks within the quarter.
II. Quarterly Market Review
January–February: weak global demand, prices under pressure
In the first two months, the global DEG market remained in a state of oversupply.
In Asia, downstream polyester plants reduced operating rates around the Chinese New Year, contracting demand. New capacity from Yulong Petrochemical, Ningxia Changyi, and BASF Zhanjiang ran at high utilisation, keeping supply ample. East China main port inventories rose from 73,000 tonnes at end‑January to over 86,000 tonnes at end‑February.
In Europe, spot prices declined steadily from the start of the year and by mid‑February stood only €20/tonne above the previous historical low. Buyers were extremely cautious in their purchasing.
In the US, the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 in January, ending 12 consecutive months of contraction, but DEG prices remained weak.
On the cost side, crude oil prices traded in a low range of $60–72/bbl for Brent during January–February, offering no cost support to DEG.
28 February – geopolitical conflict triggers supply shock
On 28 February, the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, and Iran announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This key chokepoint handles the maritime logistics of major DEG exporters including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman. Brent crude surged to $94/bbl in early March, its highest since September 2023.
March: global price rebound
The impact of the geopolitical shock spread rapidly across global markets.
In Asia, DEG prices rose by about 17% in early March. In the Zhangjiagang market, spot prices climbed from a late‑February low of RMB 3,580/tonne to RMB 5,900/tonne by 24 March, a gain of RMB 2,680/tonne.
In Europe, Northwest European DEG prices jumped €120/tonne in a single week. The EU had sourced about 34% of its ethylene glycol‑type products from Saudi Arabia in December 2025, so supply tightening sparked panic buying.
In the US, DEG prices rose 12.5% cumulatively in March, driven mainly by tighter supply and higher upstream costs rather than a demand surge.
In terms of trade flows, the disruption in Middle Eastern supply forced global buyers to seek alternatives from the US, Canada, and other sources. The US emerged as the only major supplier with positive export growth in Q1, boosting its strategic position.
III. Q1 2026 Importing Countries/Territories (Top 20)
| Rank | Importer | Import Value (USD) | Share | Transactions | Q1 2025 Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | $45.53m | 27.9% | 71 | $60.70m | -25.0% |
| 2 | United States | $14.38m | 8.8% | 11 | $23.44m | -38.7% |
| 3 | Italy | $13.84m | 8.5% | 28 | $17.08m | -19.0% |
| 4 | Germany | $13.83m | 8.5% | 33 | $19.97m | -30.7% |
| 5 | Belgium | $11.65m | 7.2% | 24 | $18.19m | -35.9% |
| 6 | Turkey | $10.97m | 6.7% | 35 | $18.90m | -41.9% |
| 7 | India | $6.93m | 4.3% | 88 | $6.87m | +0.9% |
| 8 | Poland | $4.67m | 2.9% | 19 | $5.65m | -17.3% |
| 9 | Spain | $4.65m | 2.9% | 21 | $7.57m | -38.6% |
| 10 | South Africa | $3.31m | 2.0% | 23 | $2.24m | +48.2% |
| 11 | Netherlands | $3.11m | 1.9% | 47 | $4.31m | -27.9% |
| 12 | South Korea | $2.82m | 1.7% | 28 | $5.88m | -52.0% |
| 13 | United Kingdom | $2.57m | 1.6% | 48 | $3.08m | -16.6% |
| 14 | Brazil | $2.27m | 1.4% | 30 | $6.80m | -66.6% |
| 15 | Mexico | $2.22m | 1.4% | 25 | $4.59m | -51.7% |
| 16 | Malaysia | $2.18m | 1.3% | 32 | $2.66m | -17.8% |
| 17 | Indonesia | $2.05m | 1.3% | 16 | $2.06m | -0.7% |
| 18 | Vietnam | $2.00m | 1.2% | 111 | $1.77m | +13.2% |
| 19 | Japan | $1.77m | 1.1% | 16 | $2.63m | -32.5% |
| 20 | France | $1.67m | 1.0% | 24 | $2.12m | -21.2% |
Interpretation: China remained the world’s largest DEG importer with a 27.9% share, but its import value fell 25% year‑on‑year, due to lower prices and destocking early in the quarter. Major manufacturing economies such as the US, Germany, and Italy all posted double‑digit declines, pointing to uneven global industrial demand recovery. Vietnam, South Africa, and India were the only growth markets among the top 20.
IV. Three High‑Growth Markets to Watch
| Market | Q1 2026 Value | Q1 2025 Value | YoY Growth | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. South Africa | $3.31m | $2.24m | +48.2% | Fastest‑growing major market; demand from mining chemicals, antifreeze, and coatings; limited local production, high import reliance. Its status as a non‑Middle Eastern alternative gateway may rise further amid the supply disruption. |
| 2. Vietnam | $2.00m | $1.77m | +13.2% | High transaction count (111, rank 3) with a fragmented buyer base; expanding textile, polyurethane, and coatings industries; foreign manufacturing inflows driving chemical demand. Vietnam’s import volumes were not significantly affected by the March supply shock, indicating diversified sourcing channels. |
| 3. India | $6.93m | $6.87m | +0.9% | One of the few major markets to maintain positive growth during the price downturn; 88 transactions (rank 3 in activity); stable demand from unsaturated polyester resin and pharmaceuticals. However, India is highly dependent on Middle Eastern DEG, and if supply disruptions persist, import costs could rise sharply. |
New entrant to watch: Bangladesh ($1.30 million in Q1 2026 vs. zero in Q1 2025), driven by rapid growth in coatings and textile auxiliaries.
V. Supply‑Side Landscape
| Rank | Country of Origin | Q1 2026 Value | Share | Q1 2025 Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saudi Arabia | $45.08m | 28.0% | $62.44m | -27.8% |
| 2 | United States | $25.79m | 16.0% | $24.49m | +5.3% |
| 3 | Belgium | $21.68m | 13.5% | $30.47m | -28.9% |
| 4 | Canada | $18.11m | 11.2% | $26.28m | -31.1% |
| 5 | Kuwait | $8.14m | 5.1% | $13.73m | -40.7% |
| 6 | Netherlands | $7.39m | 4.6% | $11.51m | -35.8% |
| 7 | China | $4.87m | 3.0% | $4.98m | -2.1% |
Key trends:
Saudi Arabia remained the world’s largest DEG exporter with a 28% share, though its export value fell 27.8% year‑on‑year, reflecting both lower prices and weaker demand in early Q1.
The US was the only major supplier to post positive growth (+5.3%). After the March supply disruption, US cargoes became a sought‑after resource for global buyers. Notably, US origin disappeared from China’s DEG import data for February 2026, suggesting that US supply was being diverted to other markets in greater need.
On geopolitical risk, DEG exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other Middle Eastern countries rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz. China, for example, sourced 81.07% of its DEG imports from the Middle East in 2025, with Saudi Arabia alone accounting for 60.9%. The Strait blockade caused a cliff‑like drop in Middle Eastern shipments.
VI. Monthly Trends (Q1 2026)
| Month | Transactions | Import Value (USD) | Unit Price ($/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 397 | $59.27m | $0.94 |
| February | 403 | $50.69m | $0.79 |
| March | 401 | $53.03m | $0.88 |
Interpretation:
Monthly transaction volumes remained stable at 397–403, indicating that trade activity did not shrink despite sharp price swings.
February’s unit price of $0.79/kg was the lowest of the quarter. This was driven by the Chinese New Year lull, ample global supply, and price cuts by major exporters like Saudi Arabia to maintain sales.
March’s price recovered to $0.88/kg, an 11.4% increase, driven entirely by geopolitical supply fears. Spot markets saw panic buying, and some long‑term contracts were renegotiated or defaulted. However, the $0.88 level remained below January’s $0.94, confirming that the rebound was supply‑driven rather than demand‑led. Future price movements will depend heavily on the geopolitical situation.
VII. Risks and Strategic Recommendations
- Supply chain vulnerability exposed. Global DEG imports are heavily concentrated on the Middle East (e.g., China’s 81% share). Any Strait disruption quickly transmits to prices and trade flows. Importers should reassess inventory safety margins and increase long‑term contract ratios from non‑Middle Eastern sources such as the US and Canada.
- Price volatility to persist. The Q1 pattern shows DEG prices have shifted from “overcapacity‑driven” to “geopolitical risk premium‑driven.” Wide oscillations are likely in the near term.
- High‑growth markets face cost tests. South Africa, Vietnam, and India, if unable to secure stable alternative supply, may see import costs rise significantly, potentially dampening end‑user demand. Exporters can target these markets with flexible pricing or long‑term contracts to lock in share.
- US export role to rise. As the only major supplier with positive Q1 growth, US cargoes will be a critical gap‑filler until Middle Eastern supply normalises.
The Q1 2026 DEG global import data capture both the cyclical coldness of a year‑on‑year price slump and the heat of a geopolitical shock that rapidly reshaped the market. The global demand weakness of January–February and the global supply disruption of March form two distinct narratives within a single quarter. The pace of trade flow reconfiguration in the coming quarters is likely to exceed expectations – close data monitoring and scenario planning are equally essential.
