September 16 news
Core Insights: As of September 15, 2026, publicly available data indicate that China's urea market is currently exhibiting a pullback pattern within a fluctuating range (leaning toward bullish). In the short term, prices remain at a 60-day high, with limited room for further increases. In the long term, prices are supported by strong mid-to-high-level resistance. Market participants should pay close attention to fluctuations in upstream raw material costs, including anthracite coal, liquefied natural gas, and liquid ammonia, as well as demand releases in downstream sectors such as compound fertilizers, agricultural cultivation, and melamine.
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Indicator | (2026.09.15) | (2026.09.14) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 9.50 | 5.00 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -1.50 | 8.50 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 39.37 | 35.50 | + |
- Data Note: The latest available data is up to September 15, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
2. Signal status determination
Three combinations of differences in direction are (+, -, +), which align with the characteristics of a retest (bullish) signal in a consolidation range.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current urea price trend in China is judged to be fluctuating (with a bullish bias). Reason: The direction of change in the three average differences from the previous day is not entirely consistent, which aligns with the criteria for a fluctuating market. Combined with the signal combination of (+, -, +), the short-term phase is a retracement, highlighting the bullish attribute.
4. Position Space Reference
The price tiers based on the cycle are determined as follows:
60-day cycle: The price is at the 5th level (high), with limited short-term upside potential;
3 months, 1 year cycle: The price is in the 4th tier (mid-high), with relatively narrowed long-term upside potential, and strong cost support below.
5. Spot Market Dynamics
On September 15, 2026, Shandong Ruixing Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted a latest ex-factory price of 1,750 CNY per ton for urea; actual transactions are subject to negotiation.
On September 14, 2026, the latest ex-factory quote for granular urea from Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1,785 CNY per ton, down 20 CNY per ton; actual transactions are subject to negotiation.
On September 10, 2026, the latest ex-factory quote for granular urea from Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1,805 CNY per ton, with prices remaining stable and actual transactions subject to negotiation.
Recently, the first power reception work for the 10KV substation of the 540,000-ton/year urea energy-saving and carbon reduction upgrade project in Dongguang, Hebei, China, has been completed. The subsequent release of production capacity is worth watching.
6. Upstream and downstream industry chain alerts
Upstream influencing factors: anthracite coal, liquid ammonia, and liquefied natural gas—fluctuations in raw material prices will be directly passed on to urea production costs.
Downstream demand categories: compound fertilizers, melamine, urea-formaldehyde resins, wheat, corn, early indica rice, etc. Changes in demand in the downstream sectors will directly affect the shipping pace of urea.
7. Price trend chart of the past 1 year in China
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
