Costs Rise, Demand Increases—January Isooctanol Prices Surge

February 4th news

January octanol prices surged significantly in China

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 31, the price of 2-ethylhexanol was 7,880 CNY/ton, a significant increase from the price of 6,916.67 CNY/ton on January 1, with a price increase of 13.93%; on February 4, the price of 2-ethylhexanol was 7,716.67 CNY/ton, a decrease from the price of 7,880 CNY/ton on January 31, with a price decrease of 2.07%. In January, the operating load of 2-ethylhexanol production facilities in China increased to 95%, ensuring ample supply of 2-ethylhexanol. However, some 2-ethylhexanol plants underwent maintenance in late January, causing the operating rate to drop to 90%. The significant rise in the price of propylene increased the cost support for 2-ethylhexanol. In January, the price of 2-ethylhexanol rose significantly. In February, the price of plasticizers fell from high levels, and the price of propylene also dropped, leading to a reduction in costs and demand, resulting in a fluctuating decline in the price of 2-ethylhexanol.

Isobutanol manufacturers in China see a decline from high production levels

In January, the operating rates of 2-ethylhexanol manufacturers in China increased to around 95%, leading to a rise in 2-ethylhexanol production. In the latter part of the month, some 2-ethylhexanol plants underwent maintenance, causing the operating rate to drop to 90%. This led to a decrease in 2-ethylhexanol supply, and the support for 2-ethylhexanol prices remained.

Raw material propylene costs have risen sharply.

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 31, the propylene price was 6,404.33 CNY/ton, a significant increase from the January 1 price of 5,717.67 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 12.01%; on February 2, the propylene price was 6,391 CNY/ton, a slight decrease from the January 27 price of 6,421 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 0.47%. In January, the propylene price significantly increased, leading to greater support for raw material prices and an increase in the cost of 2-ethylhexanol, which further supported the rise in 2-ethylhexanol prices. In the latter part of the month, as the propylene price fell, the cost of 2-ethylhexanol decreased, weakening the support for the rise in 2-ethylhexanol prices.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuated and increased in China.

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 31, the DOP price was 8017.50 CNY/ton, a significant increase from the January 1 DOP price of 7325.84 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 9.44%; on February 4, the DOP price was 7950.84 CNY/ton, a decrease from the January 31 DOP price of 8017.50 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 0.83%. In January, the operating load of DOP plasticizer enterprises in China slightly decreased, with an operating rate of around 63%, and DOP production decreased compared to the previous month; the increase in costs and the reduction in supply led to a significant rise in the DOP plasticizer prices in January, with increased support from the rising demand for downstream isooctanol. In February, the operating load of DOP enterprises in China slightly increased, leading to an increase in the supply of plasticizers. Coupled with the fact that pre-holiday stockpiling was nearing its end, resulting in a decline in demand, the DOP plasticizer prices fell in February, with the support from demand weakening, and the support from the increase in isooctanol also weakened.

Future Market Expectations

The analyst specializing in octanol product data believes that, from a cost perspective, the substantial rise in the price of raw material propylene has intensified the upward momentum for iso-octanol. On the supply side, iso-octanol producers have increased their operating rates, leading to a rise in iso-octanol supply. On the demand side, DOP manufacturers have boosted their operating rates, resulting in higher DOP production and stronger support for iso-octanol demand. Looking ahead, with propylene prices declining in February, the cost support for iso-octanol has weakened. As inventory preparation for the Spring Festival nears its end, plasticizer manufacturers’ operating rates saw a slight increase in February, meaning demand support for iso-octanol remains intact. Although cost support is waning, demand support persists, intensifying downward pressure on iso-octanol prices while maintaining some upward support. Therefore, we expect iso-octanol prices to remain weak but stabilize in the coming period.