September 15th, according to news:
According to SpotCom: In the first half of September, the dichloromethane market in China continued its strong upward trend since the end of August. As of September 15, the mixed price of dichloromethane in bulk in Shandong region was 2,395 CNY per ton, an increase of 11.66% from the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Market Driving Factors
Cost End: The Strong Upward Trend of Two Raw Materials Forms the Core Driving Force
The direct raw materials for dichloromethane are methanol and liquid chlorine, both of which saw synchronized price increases in the first half of September, serving as the core driving force behind this round of rebound. Methanol prices continued to climb, increasing by more than 15% within half a month, and the significant rise in methanol prices directly pushed up the production cost of dichloromethane. Liquid chlorine, starting from about 150 CNY per ton at the beginning of September, gradually recovered, with an increase of over 100% within half a month. The rapid recovery of liquid chlorine had a notable marginal impact on the cost side.
Supply and Demand: Supply remains relatively ample, while demand is lukewarm.
Supply side, in the first half of September, the operating rate of the chloromethane industry showed a recovery trend. In August, some major companies reduced production or halted operations for maintenance due to losses, but there are no significant new maintenance plans in September. Additionally, there is an expectation of new capacity release from Gansu Juhua, so overall, the industry's supply remains relatively loose.
On the demand side, September marked the beginning of a traditionally modest seasonal peak in demand, yet actual performance was lackluster. While there are expectations of increased demand in the core downstream R32 refrigerant sector, growth remains limited due to subdued end-consumer spending. Overall orders in downstream solvent markets (including coatings, pharmaceuticals, and agrochemicals) have been weak, lacking strong incentives for proactive restocking. Demand from export markets has also remained tepid. After a concentrated round of restocking in early September, downstream users and traders began to show less enthusiasm for taking deliveries starting in mid-September, indicating a waning ability on the demand side to absorb higher prices.
Future Market Forecast
Against the backdrop of persistently high prices for raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine in the short term, cost-side support for the price floor remains relatively strong, and manufacturers’ willingness to hold prices steady is unlikely to wane in the near term. However, after a rapid price surge in early September, prices have already reached a temporary peak. Downstream buyers are increasingly resistant to these high prices, demand has slowed down, and further substantial upward movement is thus constrained. It is expected that, in the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range at elevated levels, digesting the earlier price increases.
