September 16th, news:
According to the SpotCom AI assistant, this daily report is based on an average difference analysis framework, combining the latest spot quotes and industry chain supply and demand data as of September 15, 2026, to analyze the future trend of 180CST fuel oil. Currently, the 180CST fuel oil spot is in a strong oscillation range, with prices at their highest level in nearly one year. Short-term bullish signals are emerging, but the upside potential at these high levels is limited. It is necessary to closely monitor changes in crude oil supply and the demand for downstream products such as diesel and gasoline in China.
I. Explanation of the Latest Data
The most recent available data currently dates back to September 15, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data for the latest information.
On September 15, 2026, the mainstream quotation range for China's 180cst low-sulfur fuel oil (self-pickup) was 7200-7500 CNY/ton. Among them, China National Offshore Fuel (Qingdao) quoted 7850 CNY/ton, an increase of 300 CNY/ton from the previous day; China National Offshore Fuel (Shanghai) quoted 7200 CNY/ton, an increase of 200 CNY/ton from the previous day; and China National Offshore Fuel (Ningbo) quoted 7300 CNY/ton, an increase of 200 CNY/ton from the previous day. The recent spot price has been increasing for several consecutive days.
Upstream crude oil market update: On September 15, 2026, the Iraqi Ministry of Oil disclosed that August’s oil export volume reached a new high since the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, approaching 70 million barrels. The ministry plans to further increase its oil export capacity to 5 million barrels per day, which could put downward pressure on crude oil prices.
II. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Indicator | Value as of September 15, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of September 14, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 237.5 | 135.0 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 191.25 | 193.75 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 217.5 | 191.25 | + |
III. Signal Status Determination
The current combination of mean difference change signs is (+, -, +), corresponding to a pullback (slightly bullish) signal.
IV. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is oscillating (with a bullish bias). The rationale for this judgment is that the changes in the three average differences from the previous day are not entirely consistent, which meets the criteria for an oscillating market. This corresponds to a signal of a slight bullish retracement, coupled with recent continuous increases in spot quotations, indicating stronger fundamental support.
Five, Positional Spatial Reference
Fuel oil 180CST prices are in the 5th tier (high) of the nearly 1-year cycle, with relatively limited room for further increases. If subsequent demand is insufficient or crude oil prices fall, there is a possibility of a high-level correction.
VI. 1-Year Price Trend Chart
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
