September 20th report:
[Key Takeaway] Ethanol is currently undergoing a mild, choppy correction with a bearish bias. Prices remain at a mid-to-high level, and upward momentum remains weak in the short term.
The most recent available data is up to September 19, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Average Difference Type | Today’s Value (CNY/ton) | Yesterday’s Value (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference | 2.22 | 3.00 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference | 1.72 | 6.38 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference | 28.50 | 26.81 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current three differences change direction combination is (-, -, +), which belongs to a mild correction (bearish, corrective nature) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current trend is oscillating (with a bearish bias), reason: the direction of change in the three average differences from the previous day is not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear uptrend or downtrend, and thus falls within the range of a mild bearish correction in an oscillating interval. Fundamentally, a 300,000-ton-per-year ethanol plant in Sichuan, China, will resume production on September 20 after maintenance, weakening supply-side support. Currently, manufacturers' quotes have stabilized after an increase, and downstream demand is limited to rigid demand procurement, with no significant bullish factors to support further price increases.
4. Positional Space Reference
The 60-day cycle price of ethanol is in the 4th tier (upper-middle) out of 5 tiers, while the 3-month and 1-year cycle prices are both in the 3rd tier (middle). The short-term upside is limited, and the downside is also relatively controllable.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
