September 30th, update
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of 2026-09-29 | Value as of 2026-09-28 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 20.00 | 0.00 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 16.25 | 17.50 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 16.25 | 14.37 | + |
2. Signal Status Determination
The current signal is a pullback (bullish).
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current price of melamine in China is in a fluctuating trend. Reason: The direction of change in the three averages compared to the previous day is +, -, +, not completely consistent, does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, and meets the criteria for a fluctuating trend.
Supplementary Update on Spot Market Performance: Recently, manufacturers have continued to raise their quotes. On September 29, Jiuyuan Melamine in Xinji, Hebei, posted an ex‑factory price of RMB 6,200 per ton, up RMB 100 per ton from the previous trading day; on September 28, Shandong Shuntian’s ex‑factory price was RMB 6,030 per ton, a RMB 10 per ton increase from the prior quotation day; and on September 24, Sichuan Yulong and Sichuan Jinxiang raised their ex‑factory prices by RMB 150 per ton and RMB 100 per ton, respectively, compared with the preceding quotation day.
4. Positional Space Reference
Over the past 60 days and within a three-month cycle, prices are in the fifth tier (high range), leaving limited room for short-term upside. 1 year cycle price is in the 2nd tier (lower-middle), with some upside potential in the medium to long term.
5. Trend Chart Display
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
