September 30 report:
Key Takeaways
This report is based on the monitoring data of ammonium sulfate prices in China from September 29, 2025, to September 29, 2026. The latest available data is up to September 29, 2026. Combining the mean difference method, price tier indicators, and spot manufacturer quotations, it is comprehensively judged that: after a previous increase, the recent ammonium sulfate prices have entered a phase of fluctuation and consolidation, showing a mild downward trend in the short term. The 60-day cycle price is at a high level, with limited room for further increases. However, over a long-term 1-year cycle, the price remains at a medium-low level, providing some support for potential increases.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | (2026.09.29) | (2026.09.28) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 10.00 | 13.34 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 13.34 | 17.00 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 37.66 | 37.33 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
When the three consecutive first‑order differences change in the sequence (–, –, +), it signals a mild pullback within the trading range—bearish in tone and of a corrective nature.
Three, conclusions on trend directions
The current ammonium sulfate price trend in China is fluctuating. The reason is that the direction of change for the three averages compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, and thus it is in a mild adjustment phase within a fluctuation range.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
The 60-day price is at the fifth tier (high level), leaving limited room for a short-term rally.
The 3-month price is in the 5th tier (high range), with no clear upward momentum in the medium term.
1 year cycle price is in the 2nd tier (lower-middle), with some room for long-term upside.
Five, Spot Market Dynamics
On September 29, 2026, Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. posted the following ex‑factory prices for ammonium sulfate: caprolactam‑grade bulk ammonium sulfate at RMB 1,320 per ton and power‑plant‑grade ammonium sulfate at RMB 1,175 per ton. Prices have remained stable for two consecutive days; earlier, on September 24, quotations for the two grades were raised by RMB 20 per ton and RMB 80 per ton, respectively. Currently, actual market transactions are primarily based on individual negotiations.
VI. 1-Year Price Trend Chart
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
