September 30 report:
1. Mean Deviation Change Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | Today’s Value (2026.09.29) | Yesterday’s Value (2026.09.28) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -110.00 | -146.67 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | -66.67 | -71.67 | + |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | -141.67 | -105.00 | - |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current mean difference change combination is (+, +, -), which belongs to a strong rebound (biased towards more, rebound nature) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current trend is fluctuating. Reason: The directions of the three average differences compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, and do not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, thus it is determined to be a fluctuating trend.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
PC prices are at the median level over a 60-day cycle, at the upper-middle range over a three-month cycle, and at the median level over a one-year cycle. In the short term, on the three-month horizon, prices are in the upper-middle range, with relatively limited upside; in the medium to long term, on the 60-day and one-year horizons, prices are at the median, with balanced potential for both gains and losses.
5. Trend Chart Display
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current situation is a clear signal of decline.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current trend in PC prices is a clear decline. Reason: The three moving averages—D5, D10, and D20—have all changed in the same direction as the previous day, all registering negative values, thereby satisfying the criterion for a clear downward trend under the moving-average method. Fundamental update: Currently, the Zhangzhou Chimei PC unit is operating with a single line, and the Sichuan Tianhua PC unit is operating at reduced capacity. Overall, the supply side remains stable. Upstream materials, including bisphenol A and dimethyl carbonate, are at high price levels, providing some support to PC production costs. This may limit the extent of any potential price decrease.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day cycle: It is in the 4th tier (moderately high), with limited short-term upside potential and significant pressure for a pullback. * 3-month cycle: Currently at the 5th level (high range), with insufficient mid-term upward momentum. * 1 year cycle: In the 3rd tier (median), there is still some room for fluctuation in the long term.
