Positive Factors Combine to Drive a Rebound in PTA Prices

January 26th, News

Commodity market analysis system, the recent PTA market in China has been trending upwards with fluctuations. As of January 26, the spot price of PTA in the East China region was 5,341 CNY/ton, an increase of 6.63% from January 19. The expectation of spring maintenance for PX, a cost component, has led to a supply tightness sentiment. Meanwhile, the downstream polyester industry is steadily expanding its capacity, releasing rigid demand. Driven by both cost and demand, and with no new supply additions and the phasing out of outdated capacities, the PTA market's supply and demand dynamics have improved, propelling the PTA prices upward.

In the PX market, the concentrated maintenance activities during spring have further exacerbated the tight supply situation for PX. The second quarter will see the peak period of global PX maintenance, with China’s planned maintenance capacity exceeding 7.6 million tons. Additionally, plant maintenance in regions such as Japan and South Korea is expected to reduce overall supply by as much as 5%. In China, several facilities—including those operated by Sinopec and Zhejiang Petrochemical—have already scheduled maintenance in the first quarter. The anticipated contraction in supply has helped keep PX prices firm, and cost-driven factors continue to strengthen.

In terms of domestic supply, with low processing fees, PTA plant maintenance has increased. Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million tons facility was shut down on January 14; Zhuhai BP's 1.25 million tons facility was shut down on January 16. The current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 75%. It is estimated that the PTA capacity under maintenance in the first quarter will exceed 12 million tons, and in the second quarter, it will exceed 27 million tons, accounting for over 40% of the total capacity. Moreover, in 2026, the PTA industry in China will enter a capacity vacuum period, with no new capacity added, leading to further supply contraction.

In the short term, terminal demand has weakened seasonally, and downstream polyester producers have stepped up their production cuts. The utilization rate of downstream textile mills has accelerated its decline to 48%, and factories have begun to take concentrated holidays, focusing primarily on digesting their existing raw material inventories. As raw material prices rise rapidly, some mills are engaging in passive restocking activities. Looking ahead, in 2026, the polyester industry plans to bring nearly 5 million tons of new capacity online, representing a growth rate of 5.2%. This steady expansion of polyester production capacity will continue to drive growth in PTA demand.

Analysts believe that in the short term, the cost side still has support, but with polyester factories in China gradually implementing production cuts during the Spring Festival, demand will be somewhat affected, restraining the upward movement of PTA. In the medium to long term, as the concentrated release cycle of PTA capacity in China comes to an end, processing fees will gradually improve, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the future.