September 30 report:
According to the commodity analysis system, the price of petroleum coke from local refineries in September first increased and then decreased, showing an overall upward trend. The mainstream average price of medium-sulfur petroleum coke products from major local refineries in China was 3,454 CNY/ton on September 30, up 6.83% from 3,233.25 CNY/ton on September 1.
Costs: In September, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell. During the first half of the month, prices surged largely due to attacks on Saudi Arabia’s east–west oil pipelines, which put pressure on Red Sea exports; unexpected shutdowns at Libyan oilfields further tightened global supply; and mutual strikes on energy infrastructure between Ukraine and Russia heightened concerns about refined‑product supply. In the second half of the month, a confluence of bearish factors—including signs of a resumption in Middle Eastern crude exports, progress in U.S.–Iran indirect talks, and reports that the United States plans to release strategic petroleum reserves—weighed heavily, driving international oil prices sharply lower.
Supply side: In the first half of September, the operating and shipping conditions of local refineries improved. Downstream carbon enterprises replenished their inventories based on rigid demand, coupled with the rise in crude oil and residual oil prices. Additionally, pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream enterprises pushed up the price of petcoke continuously. In the latter part of the month, cost pressure on downstream enterprises continued to increase, and pre-holiday stockpiling gradually came to an end. The enthusiasm for procurement inquiries was average, and most purchases were made as needed, leading to a decline in the petcoke market of local refineries. In September, the overall port inventory of imported petcoke decreased. Downstream enterprises stocked up on necessary supplies before the holiday, and traders actively shipped out, continuing the inventory clearance mode at the ports.
Demand side: In September, prebaked anodes— the largest downstream consumer of petroleum coke— saw their benchmark procurement prices rise in Shandong. Electrolytic aluminum capacity remained stable, and demand in the aluminum-carbon market is expected to stay steady, with downstream buyers primarily sourcing on a just-in-time basis. Meanwhile, the negative electrode material sector maintained high operating rates, supporting higher prices for low-sulfur petroleum coke; prebaked anodes exhibit rigid demand-driven procurement.
Market Outlook: At present, domestic coking plants that underwent pre‑maintenance inspections are gradually resuming production, and imported coke continues to arrive at ports, resulting in ample overall supply. With petroleum coke prices remaining at elevated levels, downstream users are primarily procuring on an as‑needed basis and drawing down existing inventories. The October benchmark price for prebaked anodes has been raised, providing support to the petroleum coke market. Coupled with anticipated purchasing plans from downstream sectors after the holiday, the petroleum coke market is expected to see a modest uptick following the break.
