October 13th, News
On the 12th, the average deviation indicator for cis‑1,4‑polybutadiene rubber issued a clear bullish signal; current prices are at a near‑one‑year high. On the cost side, crude oil and butadiene provide strong support, but downstream demand—particularly in the tire sector—remains relatively weak. Adding to this, Zhenhua New Materials’ 100,000‑ton high‑cis polybutadiene unit is set to resume operations soon. As a result, prices may remain elevated and firm in the short term, though caution is warranted regarding the risk of a pullback should supply recover or demand weaken.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | Today’s Value (2026.10.12) | Yesterday’s Value (2026.10.11) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 172.00 | 128.00 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 254.00 | 186.00 | + |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 315.00 | 312.00 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current situation is a clear signal of an increase.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The trend is clearly upward, as the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences are all positive today, and the changes in these three averages compared to yesterday are all in the same direction (upward), meeting the criteria for a clear upward trend according to the average difference method. From a fundamental perspective, high and volatile crude oil prices, combined with mid-to-high butadiene prices, provide strong cost support for polybutadiene rubber. On the supply side, Zhenhua New Materials' 100,000 tons/year high-cis polybutadiene unit has not yet restarted, leading to a temporary tightness in spot supply, which together pushes prices to run on the strong side.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Butadiene rubber is currently at a high price point for the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods, corresponding to the 5th level of the 5-level scale. The theoretical upside is limited, and there is a risk of a pullback from these high levels going forward.
Five, Display of Trend Chart
VI. Fundamental Analysis Reference
Cost side: Crude oil prices are fluctuating at high levels. On October 12, the one-day average price of upstream butadiene was RMB 13,633.33 per ton, remaining near the upper end of its 60-day moving range, providing strong cost support for polybutadiene rubber.
Supply side: Zhenhua New Materials' 100,000 tons/year high-cis butadiene rubber unit in China was shut down for maintenance starting September 29, 2026, and is planned to restart soon. There is an expectation of increased supply subsequently.
Demand side: In the first nine months of 2026, U.S. electric vehicle sales fell 30.7% year over year, while imports of tires into the U.S. declined 4% in the first eight months. Downstream inquiries in China remain cautious, reflecting weak demand.
Spot prices: On October 12, the mainstream prices for Butadiene Rubber from Daqing, Sichuan, and Dushanzi in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region of China were 16,800 to 17,100 CNY per ton, an increase of about 300 CNY per ton compared to October 8.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
