October 14th News
This analysis is based on the diesel spot price and average difference data up to October 13, 2026, combined with recent international crude oil trends, supply and demand dynamics outside China, and policy developments in China. The current average difference indicator for diesel shows a rebound (bearish) signal, with prices at a high level within the past year's cycle. The upside potential is limited, and the overall trend is expected to be volatile and bearish, for reference by market participants.
I. Data Description
The most recent available data is up to October 13, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Table of Finite Differences
| Difference Type | Value as of 2026.10.13 (Today) | Value as of 2026.10.12 (Yesterday) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 3.72 | 4.31 | - |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | -46.39 | -75.87 | + |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | -23.81 | 0.04 | - |
III. Signal State Determination
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (－, ＋, －), which belong to the rebound (bearish) signal in the oscillation range.
IV. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current trend in diesel prices is volatile (with a bearish bias), due to the fact that the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences do not all change in the same direction compared to the previous day, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. This is considered a volatile trend, and the signal type is a pullback, with the overall direction biased towards a decline.
Five, Position and Spatial Reference
Diesel prices are at the fifth tier—high—on 60-day, three-month, and one-year cycles, leaving limited room for further increases.
VI. Trend Chart Display
VII. Fundamental Analysis Reference
Cost side: On October 12, international crude oil futures closed higher, with the U.S. WTI crude oil November contract settling at $93.74 per barrel, up 2.1%, and the Brent crude oil December contract settling at $106.65 per barrel, up 1.8%, providing some cost support for diesel prices.
Chinese spot prices: On October 13, the price range for diesel from independent refineries in the Northeast region was 9,400-9,500 CNY/ton, with stable quotations; in the Northwest region, the price range for diesel from independent refineries was 9,100-9,200 CNY/ton, with quotations declining.
International Supply and Demand and Policy: In September, India’s diesel exports reached a one-year high of approximately 620,000 barrels per day, with nearly half destined for Europe, easing the region’s diesel supply tensions. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has urged member countries to assess the need for additional releases from their diesel reserves; France has already announced it will release 10 million barrels of diesel reserves over the next three months, which is expected to put downward pressure on diesel prices.
Supply chain relationships: The core raw materials upstream of diesel are crude oil and fuel oil, and the main downstream products are methanol diesel.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
