October 13th, according to news,
I. Market Overview
This week, the melamine market in China first stabilized, then surged and finally declined, showing an overall weak fluctuation pattern. According to monitoring data, as of October 13, the benchmark price of urea was 1757.50 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the beginning of the month (1780.00 CNY/ton).
Urea prices on the raw-material side have weakened in tandem. As of October 13, the benchmark urea price stood at RMB 1,757.50 per tonne, down 1.26% from the beginning of the month (RMB 1,780.00 per tonne), signaling a slight easing of cost‑based support.
II. Technical Analysis of SpotTong
From the moving average system and price quantiles:
Moving Average Trend: In the early part of this week, the spot price of melamine in China remained above the 10-day moving average, with the 10-day moving average consistently higher than the 20-day moving average, maintaining a positive difference. This indicated short-term bullish momentum, driving a brief surge in prices. After reaching a peak on October 11, the price quickly dropped, and on October 12, the spot price fell below the 10-day moving average, moving closer to the 20-day moving average. This showed signs of a short-term bearish crossover, signaling a short-term adjustment. The 10-day moving average has flattened, while the 20-day moving average continues to rise slowly, indicating that the medium- to long-term support has not been completely broken.
2. Price Range: The price on October 12 was at a low point in the 10-day cycle, but remained in the mid-high to high range for the 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day cycles; on a one-year scale, it was in the mid-low range. This indicates that there was a rapid short-term price retraction, but from a medium to long-term perspective, the market is still in a relatively high range. The rapid short-term correction is a pullback and adjustment after a period of high volatility.
3. Fundamental Logic
Supply Side
Chinese melamine enterprises have maintained relatively stable operations, with overall supply being sufficient. During the period of stable prices, factories shipped goods normally, but after the prices peaked, downstream buyers were less willing to purchase, leaving factories unable to maintain high prices, which then led to a price drop. The decline in the price of raw material urea has to some extent alleviated cost pressure for manufacturers, but it has also weakened the upward support from the cost side.
Demand Side
Downstream sectors such as panel manufacturers and impregnated paper producers have shown limited restocking activity following the holiday period, with procurement driven primarily by rigid demand and little willingness to pay higher prices. After a brief rally this week, market sentiment has turned more cautious, with insufficient follow‑through on large‑volume transactions, making it difficult to sustain upward pressure on prices—this is the key reason behind the recent pullback from the recent peak.
4. Future Market Analysis
The short-term melamine market in China may continue to follow a weak and volatile trend. Technical indicators show a bearish crossover signal, suggesting potential continued pressure in the near term; the weak urea market has led to reduced cost support. Downstream demand is not expected to show any significant recovery, with high prices suppressing terminal purchases.
If the price continues to fall below the 20-day moving average support, the downward pressure on the market will further increase; if the 20-day moving average effectively supports, the market is likely to maintain a range-bound oscillation. Subsequently, it is important to track changes in urea raw material prices, the operating rates of the downstream panel industry, and factory inventory changes.
