October 16th, news
Today, the spot price of urea in China is stable. According to the monitoring by the average difference method, the current market shows a weak rebound (bearish) oscillation characteristic. In the short term, the price is at a medium-low level with limited downward space. Over a 1-year period, the price is at a medium level, and there is no clear trend of increase or decrease. Subsequently, it is necessary to closely monitor the recovery pace of downstream agricultural and industrial demand and the impact of the implementation of import policies.
The latest available data is up to October 15, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | (2026.10.15) | (2026.10.14) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -11.00 | -17.50 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | -14.25 | -12.25 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | -6.63 | -2.63 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (+, -, -), which belong to a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current price trend is oscillating, with the rationale being: the changes in the three averages compared to the previous day do not completely align in direction, failing to meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. Overall, it is operating within an oscillating range, with a slightly bearish attribute becoming more prominent.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day and 3-month cycle prices are both at moderate to low levels, with limited room for decline;
The 1-year cycle price is at a moderate level, with some room for adjustment both up and down in the short term, and there is no clear momentum for a trend of increase or decrease.
V. Recent Fundamental Insights
Manufacturer's quotation: On October 15, 2026, the ex-factory price of medium-granular urea from Hualu Hengsheng in China was 1705 CNY/ton, with the price remaining stable for now. Previously, from October 10 to 13, the price had been cumulatively reduced by 35 CNY/ton; Shandong Ruixing quoted 1700 CNY/ton on October 13, with a price decrease.
Policy Update: On October 14, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce announced the 2027 fertilizer import tariff quotas, with a urea quota of 3,300,000 tons.
Six, Display of Trend Charts
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
