September 18th News
According to the commodity market analysis system, since September (as of 15:00 on September 18), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market has risen continuously from 3,250 CNY/ton to around 3,983 CNY/ton. The price has significantly increased by 22.56% during this period, up 41.76% month-over-month, and up 76.12% year-over-year.
Recently, coastal methanol imports have remained low, and domestic supply has not seen a significant increase. The overall coastal methanol market in China still shows a tight supply, providing strong support for prices. Additionally, with the approaching holidays, downstream companies are stocking up, supporting the rise in the Chinese methanol market.
As of the close on September 18, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China fell. The main contract for methanol futures 2610 opened at 3450 CNY/ton, with the highest price at 3515 CNY/ton and the lowest price at 3395 CNY/ton. It closed at 3433 CNY/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement, a price decrease of 2.50%. The volume was 2,058,212, the open interest was 288,276, and the daily change in open interest was -14,219.
Methanol Spot vs Futures Comparison Chart:
As of September 18, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:
| Region | Price |
|---|---|
| Shanxi Region | 3,530–3,570 CNY/ton, cash payment at factory |
| Anhui Region | 3,650–3,700 CNY/ton |
| Henan Region | 3,580–3,655 CNY/ton, cash payment at factory |
Cost Side: Coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized, continuing their relatively strong performance and supporting methanol prices to remain volatile at high levels. The cost side of methanol is influenced by mildly favorable factors.
Coal/Power Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Demand Side: From the downstream perspective, the overall operation of olefins has rebounded, while traditional downstream sectors have seen a decline in load due to price issues. Pre-holiday rigid demand still provides support. The demand for methanol is positively influenced by the impact of methanol prices on most downstream products.
Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Supply side, plant maintenance at Shanxi Linxin and Hebi Coal Chemical; reduced production at Hualu Hengsheng; resumption of operations at Yunnan Jiehua, Jineng Technology, Qinghai Salt Lake, Yantai Wanhua, Shaanxi Changqing, and Inner Mongolia Guotai. Overall, the volume of resumed production exceeded the volume of lost production, leading to an increase in the capacity utilization rate and an increase in output. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.
On the international markets, as of the close on September 17, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 617.5–618.5 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 150–152 cents per gallon; and the FOB Rotterdam, Europe methanol market closed at EUR 456–458 per ton.
| Region | Country | Closing Price |
|---|---|---|
| Asia | CFR Southeast Asia | USD 617.5–618.5 per ton |
| Europe and the U.S. | U.S. Gulf | 150–152 cents/gallon |
| Europe | FOB Rotterdam | EUR 456–458 per ton |
The market forecast suggests that with a tight supply in China and pre-holiday restocking demand from downstream sectors, the buying momentum is driving prices to new highs. Overall, methanol analysts predict that the Chinese methanol spot market may consolidate at high levels.
