October 15th report:
On October 14, 2026, the indicators for hydrofluoric acid diverged. Only the 20-day average difference showed a slight increase, while the 5-day and 10-day average differences remained unchanged, indicating a slightly bullish signal with oscillation. The direction of changes in the average differences across different periods was not entirely consistent, leading to an overall oscillatory market trend. The 60-day cycle is at a medium-low level, suggesting limited short-term downward space. The one-year cycle is at a high level, limiting the potential for further long-term increases. Upstream fluorspar prices weakened slightly, and downstream refrigerant production remained low, keeping the spot market stable. There is currently no strong unilateral driver from the supply and demand side.
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of 2026.10.14 | Value as of 2026.10.13 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 0 | 0 | No Change |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 0 | 0 | No Change |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | -50 | -60 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current situation shows a slightly bullish signal, with only the 20-day average difference increasing compared to yesterday, while the 5-day and 10-day average differences remain unchanged. The overall direction of movement is not yet fully unified.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The trend is oscillating. Reason: The direction of change in the three averages compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, thus there is no clear unilateral trend. Fundamentally, the price of upstream fluorspar in China has slightly declined, the operating rate of downstream refrigerants is low, and the spot price of hydrofluoric acid is stable. There are no significant factors driving a unilateral increase or decrease in supply and demand.
4. Positional Space Reference
The 60-day price cycle is in the second tier (mid-to-low range): short-term downside is limited. The 1-year price cycle is in the fifth tier (high range): medium- to long-term upside is limited.
5. Trend chart display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
