October 22nd, according to news from China,
Since October, the spot market for styrene-butadiene rubber in China has first risen and then declined, with fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, the price was 16,175 CNY/ton. After the holiday, it was driven up to 16,833 CNY/ton by the strengthening of crude oil and butadiene. Subsequently, due to resistance from downstream buyers to high prices, the price slightly dropped to around 16,133 CNY/ton. As of the 21st, the price had fallen by 3.01% compared to the beginning of the month.
Geopolitical disturbances have pushed up crude oil prices, driving butadiene to operate at high levels. However, with the resumption of cracking facilities and an increase in imported supplies, butadiene supply has gradually eased, leading to a decline in prices. Since October, styrene plant maintenance has reduced supply, and low port inventory has provided support. However, downstream ABS, PS, and EPS consumers show weak purchasing interest, and the lack of robust demand is limiting the price increase of styrene. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of October 21, the price of butadiene was 13,233 CNY/ton, a 2.34% decrease from 13,550 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month. As of October 21, the price of styrene was 11,014 CNY/ton, a 3.81% increase from 10,610 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month.
Chinese styrene-butadiene facilities are operating at around 70% capacity, with few undergoing maintenance. There is no significant destocking or inventory accumulation, making it difficult for the supply side to provide strong support.
After the holiday, the golden September peak season benefits have faded, and the demand for all-steel tires is weak. The inventory of finished tires is decreasing slowly, putting pressure on profitability. Enterprises mostly purchase according to their immediate needs and avoid stockpiling. The demand for non-tire products such as shoe materials and hoses is flat, with no significant increase. This provides insufficient support for styrene-butadiene rubber.
Future Market Forecast:
From a technical perspective: Based on the spot price and moving average chart, the current spot price of styrene-butadiene rubber has fallen below the short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. The medium- to long-term moving averages (20/30/60 days) are still trending upward, and the medium-term uptrend has not been broken, forming a support range. Short-term indicators are turning, suggesting a need for a pullback to digest profits. It is expected that in the short term, there will be a weak consolidation with support from the medium- to long-term moving averages. If the support holds, the market may stabilize and rebound again; if the moving averages are effectively breached, the correction space will expand.
Fundamentally, in the short term, styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) is expected to fluctuate at high levels, with strong resistance above. Without concentrated restocking, it will be difficult for prices to stabilize. Costs and underlying demand provide a floor, limiting the potential for a deep decline. In the medium to long term, as we enter the traditional low-demand season of November-December, demand is likely to weaken further, making it easier for price levels to fall than to rise. If crude oil support collapses, SBR prices in the fourth quarter could see a significant drop.
