October 22nd, according to news from China,
Since October, the EVA market in China has experienced a stepwise increase. According to data, as of October 22, the benchmark price of EVA was 11,633 CNY per ton, an increase of 5.44% from 11,033 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently, international crude oil prices have been fluctuating and strengthening, with the prices of raw materials such as ethylene and vinyl acetate remaining high due to support. This has provided cost support for EVA. As of October 22, the price of ethylene from Sinopec in East China was 9,400 CNY per ton; as of October 22, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 7,400 to 7,800 CNY per ton.
Since October, the EVA supply side has had strong support: multiple plants including Lianhong, Silong batch, Tianli, Gulei, and Formosa have undergone concentrated maintenance, causing the industry operating rate to fall to around 60%, with a phased tightening of supply. Petrochemical companies have collectively raised factory prices, led by foam materials, and spot prices have quickly surged.
Following the price hike, downstream resistance has become pronounced: foam‑shoe‑material producers are operating at around 50% capacity, while leading adhesive‑film manufacturers are running at approximately 55%. With overall utilization near rock-bottom levels, the market is driven solely by rigid demand. EVA producers, with limited inventories, are maintaining firm list prices, yet spot‑market negotiations have begun to ease. As a result, the market has shifted from a one‑sided rally to a stable but stalled situation.
From the EVAspot price-moving average chart, the current EVAspot price is firmly above the moving averages of all periods, with the 5/10/20-day moving averages in a bullish arrangement, indicating a clear short-term upward trend. However, the current price is far from the medium- and long-term moving averages, showing a large deviation and signs of overbuying, which increases the risk of chasing the rise. In the short term, there may be high-level consolidation to digest the price increase, with support at the 5-day moving average and strong support at the 10-day moving average. Without new strong positive news, the space for continued sharp rises is limited. Later, as the fundamentals weaken, the bullish structure of the moving averages may face pressure and turn downward.
Looking ahead, as the current EVA maintenance facilities have not yet fully resumed production, there is a strong intention to maintain prices under the condition of low inventory in the petrochemical sector. The rush to complete photovoltaic projects in the fourth quarter is expected to support the demand for photovoltaic materials, keeping EVA prices at a high level in the short term. In the medium to long term, with the gradual return of maintenance facilities and the release of new capacities in the fourth quarter, the expectation of a more relaxed supply situation will suppress bullish sentiment. If cost factors no longer provide support, EVA prices will see a significant drop.
