October 22nd News
As October began, China’s polyester staple fiber market followed a pattern of an initial surge followed by high‑level consolidation and adjustment. The primary driver was rising costs, while weak demand from downstream yarn mills emerged as the biggest drag, resulting in a supply chain characterized by “strong cost support but sluggish downstream transmission.” In the first half of October, volatile crude oil prices and concentrated maintenance at PTA plants pushed raw material costs higher, prompting a corresponding rise in polyester staple fiber quotations. The market briefly saw a round of restocking, leading to a short‑lived rebound in sales and production. However, this round of price increases was driven by cost pressures rather than a genuine pickup in downstream orders; faced with elevated raw material prices, downstream yarn mills remained cautious, showing limited willingness to chase higher prices.
As the PTA price center of gravity shifts lower, the upward momentum for polyester staple fiber has gradually faded, and prices have entered a phase of high-level volatility. On the supply side, persistent losses earlier in the cycle have prompted many staple‑fiber producers to proactively cut capacity, keeping industry operating rates at subdued levels. This has to some extent eased supply pressures, with factory inventories remaining relatively low, providing a modest floor for prices. However, demand remains sluggish: pure polyester yarn utilization is weak, yarn mills are carrying elevated finished‑goods inventories, and new textile orders are limited. Mills continue to adopt a just‑in‑time purchasing strategy, reluctant to build up large stockpiles, which has hampered the pass‑through of cost increases upstream. As a result, staple‑fiber producers remain mired in losses, with processing margins persistently squeezed at low levels, making it difficult to restore profitability.
Analysts believe that in the short term, the price of polyester staple fiber will most likely oscillate within a range, following PTA and crude oil. The positive support comes from the prices of upstream raw materials and the supply contraction due to the continuous low operating rates of staple fiber enterprises; the pressure comes from the insufficient orders in the textile industry. If the prices of raw materials continue to rise, the losses of downstream yarn mills will further increase, which may trigger a new round of production cuts and negative feedback, suppressing the upward space for staple fiber. In the short term, the key variable to watch is whether the marginal order recovery brought by Singles' Day can drive the restocking of yarn mills, which is crucial for the phased improvement in the demand for staple fiber.
Going forward, key factors to monitor include: cost fluctuations driven by crude oil and PTA price volatility; changes in operating rates at polyester staple fiber producers; the interplay between plant restarts and production cuts amid losses; as well as trends in pure polyester yarn utilization, export orders, and the pace of finished‑goods inventory destocking.
