According to the commodity market analysis system, as of July 13th, the price of MTBE in China has risen from 5,100 CNY/ton to 6,233 CNY/ton, with a single-day increase of 15.17%. Since July, the price has increased by nearly 20%, and the significant increase in company quotations has led to a substantial rise in the MTBE market.
MTBE China Production Price Trend Chart:
This sharp price increase is beneficial in the following aspects: cost-driven, reduced supply due to more manufacturers shutting down their facilities, increased terminal demand, and a continuous rise in export orders.
On the cost front, international oil prices have risen. The main positive factor is that the U.S. has announced the cessation of the ceasefire agreement, prompting market concerns that control over the Strait of Hormuz could once again be at risk and intensifying worries about supply risks.
On the supply side, due to the continuous low profitability of facilities, manufacturers have gradually halted production or reduced output, keeping the MTBE facility utilization rate consistently low, recently dropping to 40%, indicating a significant contraction in the supply.
In terms of demand, as temperatures gradually rise across China, the use of air conditioning in traditional fuel vehicles has significantly increased, leading to higher fuel consumption and a boost in gasoline demand. Additionally, with the end of the exam season and the arrival of summer vacation, residents' travel radius has notably expanded, improving the sales at retail gas stations. The overall buying and selling atmosphere is quite active, which promotes an increase in MTBE demand.
MTBE exports have also shown a positive trend, with a continuous increase in export contracts. Recently, many manufacturers have concentrated on signing export contracts, and the volume of export orders signed after entering July has exceeded 150,000 tons, mainly for shipments at the end of July, with a small number of orders for early August. This has injected confidence into China's MTBE market.
Overall, multiple positive factors have collectively driven a significant upward trend in China's MTBE market. However, under the strong price increase, attention should also be paid to the downstream acceptance. MTBE analysts expect that in the short term, the China MTBE market will mainly maintain a strong consolidation.
(Source: )
