October 22nd, news
Since October, polybutadiene rubber has first risen and then fallen, with significant fluctuations. Data shows that as of October 22, the price of polybutadiene rubber in East China was 16,350 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.80% from 16,220 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month. The highest point during the period was 16,900 CNY/ton.
Geopolitical disturbances have pushed up crude oil prices, driving butadiene to operate at high levels. However, with the resumption of cracking units and an increase in imported supplies, butadiene supply is gradually becoming more relaxed. The port inventory in East China increased to 28,200 tons, and coupled with weak demand, butadiene prices have declined. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of October 22, the price of butadiene was 13,266 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from 13,550 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month.
In October, multiple polybutadiene facilities in China are scheduled for maintenance: Qixiang, Haopu New Materials, and some rare earth polybutadiene units will be shut down or operating at reduced capacity. The industry's operating rate remains at a low level of around 60%. Manufacturers' inventories have slightly decreased, providing some support to the polybutadiene rubber market.
After the holiday, the peak season bonus of the golden September in China has faded, and the demand for all-steel tires is weak. The inventory reduction of tire products is slow, putting pressure on profitability. Enterprises mostly purchase according to their immediate needs and avoid stockpiling. The demand for non-tire products such as shoe materials and hoses is flat, lacking growth. This provides insufficient support for butadiene rubber.
Market Forecast:
From the spot Butadiene Rubber - moving average chart, the current spot price of Butadiene Rubber has fallen below the 5-day moving average, and the short-term bullish momentum of the moving averages has slowed down. The 5-day and 10-day lines have shifted from strong support to resistance, while the 20-day moving average is still trending upwards, indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet completely deteriorated. The trading volume has decreased with the price surge, and the bullish momentum has weakened. In the short term, it has entered a period of retracement and consolidation. If the 20-day line is breached, the correction space will further expand.
Fundamentally, the short-term butadiene rubber market in China is expected to remain highly volatile. The ongoing plant maintenance in the industry, coupled with geopolitical conflicts driving international crude oil prices to stay high, provides support for both the supply and cost of butadiene rubber. However, demand is unlikely to see significant improvement, making the sustainability of the rebound weak. In the medium to long term, if the geopolitical conflicts end, the cost of butadiene rubber will face a collapse. Additionally, with the concentrated resumption of production facilities and trade disruptions, there is a significant risk of a substantial decline in the butadiene rubber market.
