October 28th News
October 28, 2026 — Core Market Commentary: In the short term, caustic soda is under clear downward pressure, with consecutive price cuts in major producing regions and reduced purchasing prices from downstream alumina producers weighing on the market. However, prices are already at cyclical lows, leaving limited room for further declines.
1. Average Deviation Change Table
2. Signal status determination
Three differences all changed in the same direction as the previous day, all negative, indicating a clear downward signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term trend is clearly downward, for the following reasons: On the moving‑average front, the 5‑day, 10‑day, and 20‑day moving averages all declined in tandem with the previous day, indicating consistent downward momentum across both short‑ and medium‑term price cycles. From a fundamental perspective, in Shandong—the main production region—quotations for 32% ion‑exchange membrane caustic soda have fallen by RMB 10–20 per ton for two consecutive days, while downstream aluminum oxide producers have lowered their purchase prices by RMB 10 per ton. Spot shipments in China are under pressure, demand support has weakened, and only the export market remains relatively stable.
4. Position Space Reference
Sodium hydroxide 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycle prices are all in the 1st tier (low position). The current position has limited downward space, and if subsequent downstream demand marginally recovers, there is a possibility of a phased price recovery.
5. Trend chart display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
