October 16th report:
On October 15, 2026, the current hydrofluoric acid market in China is in a strong consolidation pattern with a bullish bias, and the overall trend is oscillating. The 5-day and 10-day moving average differences remain unchanged, while the negative gap of the 20-day moving average difference continues to narrow, indicating some relief in the long-term downward momentum. The 60-day cycle is in a mid-low position, and the one-year cycle is at a high level, with both upward and downward spaces constrained. Coupled with an overall balanced supply and demand, the probability of significant short-term price fluctuations is low.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Difference Type | Value as of 2026.10.15 | Value as of 2026.10.14 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 0 | 0 | No change |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | 0 | 0 | No change |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | -40 | -50 | + |
2. Signal status determination
Currently, this is a strong consolidation signal (leaning bullish).
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current price trend is oscillating. Reason: The 5-day and 10-day average differences have not changed compared to the previous day, while the 20-day average difference has increased, and the directions of the three are not entirely consistent, meeting the criteria for an oscillating trend. The negative gap in the 20-day average difference continues to narrow, indicating that the long-term downward momentum has somewhat eased, and the overall trend is slightly bullish. Combining with the fundamental analysis: the price of upstream fluorspar in China has slightly decreased, the operating rate of downstream refrigerants is low, and the operation of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is stable. The overall supply and demand are in balance, supporting a stable price, which is consistent with the oscillating trend determined by the average difference method.
4. Positional Space Reference
60-day cycle price is in the 2nd tier (lower-middle): limited downside. 1-year cycle price is in the 5th tier (high): limited upside. Overall, recent hydrofluoric acid prices in China have been constrained, and the probability of significant fluctuations is low.
5. Trend chart display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
