October 29 —
Key Takeaway: In the short term, 1,4-butanediol (BDO) is exhibiting a weak, choppy rebound with bearish bias. With sluggish downstream demand and expectations of new capacity coming online, upward price momentum faces significant headwinds, making a sustained rally unlikely.
The most recent available data is up to October 28, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Type | Today’s Value (CNY/ton) | Yesterday’s Value (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | -17.2 | -31.5 | Up |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -42.8 | -37.3 | Down |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | -56.4 | -49.1 | Down |
2. Signal Status Determination
The three central differences changed in the same direction as the previous day—(+, -, -)—signaling a weak rebound (bearish).
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term trend is choppy and tilted bearish. Reasons: The directional changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are not entirely consistent with the previous day, meeting the oscillation‑detection criteria of the moving‑average method; the sign pattern (＋,−,−) indicates a weak rebound with a bearish bias; on the fundamentals front, downstream spandex and PBAT utilization rates remain persistently low, with the market dominated by rigid demand‑driven procurement, and industry inventories remain elevated. Coupled with expectations of multiple new BDO production units coming on stream in the fourth quarter, supply-side pressure is substantial. Only brief maintenance shutdowns at a few plants have provided limited support for a modest price rebound, but this support lacks sustainability.
4. Positional Space Reference
The 1-year cycle price is in the 1st tier (low position) out of 5 tiers, and the 3-month cycle is in the 2nd tier (moderately low position). With support from the cost side, there is limited room for further decline, but the resistance to increase is significant under the current supply and demand balance in China.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
