August 14th, according to reports
On the 13th, the natural rubber average difference indicator released a deep correction signal. The price is in the high range of the 1-year cycle, with limited upward space, showing a short-term oscillation and correction trend; recently, the market in the Qingdao area first stabilized and then slightly increased. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in July decreased year-on-year. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance and the impact of the Shanghai rubber futures trend on the spot market.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-13) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-12) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 35 | 42.5 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 57.5 | 102.5 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 146.25 | 104.16 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current average difference change symbol combination is (－, －, ＋), which belongs to a deep correction (bearish, corrective nature) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is oscillating. Reason: The directions of the three moving average differences compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent. The 5-day and 10-day moving average differences have decreased compared to yesterday, while the 20-day moving average difference has increased. This is in line with the signal characteristics of a deep pullback in an oscillating market, indicating a short-term pullback trend.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Natural rubber is at a relatively high price position in its 1-year cycle, with limited room for further increases. It is currently in a correction phase, and there is a need to be cautious about the possibility of the correction expanding.
Five, Trend Chart Display
VI. Market Dynamics
Qingdao Market Trends: On August 10, the market remained largely stable with minor fluctuations; on August 11, prices consolidated at higher levels; and on August 12, prices edged slightly higher. For 2024, the mainstream quotations for Yunbao/Guangken/Haibao are between 16,950 and 17,150 CNY per ton; for the same specifications in 2025, the mainstream quotations range from 17,150 to 17,300 CNY per ton; and for Vietnamese 3L, the mainstream quotations are between 18,150 and 18,350 CNY per ton.
Import data: In July 2026, China imported 580,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year; the total import from January to July was 4,515,000 tons, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
