The trend of PVC futures is strong and short-term market keeps high

Recently, PVC market futures have attracted much attention, mainly due to the opening of the night market of PVC futures and the continuous rise of PVC futures. On April 2, the night market of PVC 1909 contract reached a new high of 6730 in 2019, which triggered another heated debate after the night market earthquake.

Influenced by the sharp rise in futures, the spot market quotations increased significantly, ranging from 20 to 110 CNY/ton, the mainstream of type 5 materials in North China market was 6500-6640 CNY/ton, up 20-80 CNY/ton from the previous trading day, up 0.77%; the mainstream of type 5 materials in East China market was 6520-6680 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton from the previous trading day, up 1.56%; the mainstream of type 5 materials in South China market was 6590-6720 CNY/ton, up 1.56%; the mainstream of type 5 materials in South China market was 6590-6720 CNY/ton, up from the previous trading day. The trading day rose 110 CNY/ton, or 1.70%. Traders have a good mentality, pulling up market quotations, and individual businesses say that prices are slightly chaotic and there is a closure phenomenon. In terms of manufacturers, some PVC manufacturers'quotations showed signs of rising. Some manufacturers indicated that the supply was tight, limited sales, and some manufacturers also experienced closure. Downstream still maintained just needed, but in the buy-up and not buy-down mentality, the order volume slightly increased. How will the late PVC market develop? In the background of the current unknown trend, we can analyze from futures and spot influencing factors:

futures face: Dalian futures PVC1909 contract opened high on April 3, opening 6540, the highest 6730, the lowest 6520, closing 6700, rising 170, rising 2.60%. Volume was reported at 374596, with an increase of 39786 to 367 514 positions. The contract of PVC 1909 has risen sharply, and both volume and position have increased. Technically, the KDJ index is basically flat, and the red pillar of MACD index is further elongated, indicating that the strength of many parties has increased. Trend, the Brin Channel is still in a strong area, the waterfall line formed a multi-headed arrangement, so the trend is still more. It is expected that strong shocks will be maintained in the short term, but we should guard against a high drop. Operationally, investors are advised to hold more carefully.

Spot: Good: Carbide supply is tight, carbide arrival of PVC manufacturers is unbalanced, carbide prices remain high, which still form a certain support for PVC; in recent years, some PVC manufacturers still have maintenance plans. It is expected that the number of maintenance enterprises will increase in mid-late April, which is expected to ease the supply and demand pressure; downstream products factories will resume construction, and the demand in downstream will be better in April.

shortfall: Although the social stock of PVC has declined, it still maintains a high level, forming a certain shortfall for PVC; recently, downstream delivery has maintained just demand, which is more resistant to high-price supply; some PVC enterprises have plans to increase production.

In summary, it is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term. With the weakening of negative factors of high social inventory of PVC, the risk of high-level decline in the later period will not be excluded, but the expected range will not be too large, supported by the cost and high-level volatility of futures. Later period should pay attention to futures, downstream delivery, social inventory digestion and market changes in many aspects.