Soda ash prices in China rose first and then fell in October

October 31st, news

I. Price Trends

According to monitoring data, the caustic soda prices in October first increased and then decreased, with a stable trend at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of caustic soda in the Shandong region was 832 CNY/ton, and by the end of the month, the price in the Shandong region was 838 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.72%, but a decrease of 19.19% compared to the same period last year. On October 30, the chemical index was 755 points, unchanged from the previous day, down 46.07% from the highest point of 1400 points (October 23, 2021), and up 26.25% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The period refers to December 1, 2011, to the present.)

II. Market Analysis

According to the survey data, the caustic soda prices in October first increased and then decreased, with an overall consolidation trend at the end of the month. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda was around 750-880 CNY/ton. In Jiangsu, the caustic soda prices were stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda around 890-1000 CNY/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the caustic soda prices were consolidating, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda (converted to 100%) around 2700-2800 CNY/ton. This month, the caustic soda prices first increased and then decreased. The price increase in the first ten days of the month was mainly due to the fact that, in the Shandong region, the supply and demand pressure was not significant, and some enterprises had maintenance expectations. After the middle of October, in the Shandong region, the supply increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, leading to a weakening and consolidation of prices. Recently, the prices of downstream alumina have fallen, causing dealers to be pessimistic. Some enterprises are facing significant operational pressures and are purchasing caustic soda on a need basis.

Analysts believe that the recent caustic soda prices have been operating weakly. Recently, downstream sectors in China have mostly purchased according to demand, and caustic soda suppliers have had ample supply. The overall supply and demand dynamics suggest that caustic soda prices will likely remain in a consolidation phase in the later period, depending on the specific market demand from downstream sectors.