Thousands of companies have stopped production, and price increases and shortages are coming again

Recently, the “red light” of dual energy consumption control has been lit in many places in China. In less than four months before the year-end “big test”, the areas “named” by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have taken measures to improve energy consumption as soon as possible. Major chemical provinces such as Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang have even hit harder, taking measures such as suspension of production and power outages on thousands of companies, making local companies caught off guard.

Zhejiang: a power outage notice issued by a major textile town, covering 161 companies

A person familiar with the matter said that Shaoxing Keqiao issued a power outage notice, “According to the spirit of the emergency meeting of the province on September 20 and the spirit of instructions from the main leaders of the provincial government, the province is required to immediately reduce the power consumption of key energy-consuming enterprises. All localities. Under the premise of ensuring safety, high-energy-consuming key energy-consuming enterprises must suspend production until the end of the month. The high-energy-consuming key energy-consuming enterprises that have not shut down before 11 o'clock on September 21 will be taken by the power department. A total of 161 enterprises in our district will be involved. , All enterprises in the printing and dyeing and chemical fiber industries. All towns (streets) are requested to notify the enterprises to implement the requirements. Ma'an Street will immediately reduce the heating load through the thermal power enterprises, and arrange the heating enterprises to stop production in an orderly manner in order to reduce the heating load."

The printing and dyeing capacity of Keqiao District, Shaoxing, Zhejiang accounts for more than half of that of Zhejiang Province and one-third of that of the country. Every move here will play a vital role in the entire printing and dyeing industry in China, and it can be said to affect the whole body.

An environmentally friendly thermal power company in Zhejiang issued a notice saying that the current coal price for thermal power plants has risen to about 1,450 CNY/ton, and there is no market, and the supply of goods cannot be guaranteed. The long-term inventory of coal (2-4 days) seriously threatens heating production The continuity and stability of the company, although the company does everything possible to find sources of goods from all over the country at any cost, it is still full of difficulties and cannot guarantee an effective increase in inventory.

A thermal power company in Shaoxing stated that the market coal tensions will continue. The current coal inventory of the company has broken the historical low for seven days, which has put tremendous pressure on normal production and operation. The existing inventory is no longer sufficient for normal and stable production. Please all users to reduce the burden. , Production preparation for stopping steam.

Jiangsu: Printing and Dyeing Concentration District issued a production suspension notice, over 1,000 companies "opened two and stopped two"

An enterprise in Jiangsu revealed that it had received the "September 19, 2021 Energy Consumption Double Reduction Control Plan", which requires the enterprise to limit production according to different levels. Category A shall not consume more electricity than the same period last year; Category B shall be reduced by 10%; all 1096 Category C enterprises shall restrict production in accordance with the measures of “opening two and stopping two”. They are divided into two batches with rotation production; 143 category D plots The production of all 28 printing and dyeing enterprises shall be suspended; all 28 printing and dyeing enterprises shall restrict production in accordance with the measures of “opening two and stopping two”. They are divided into two batches and production is rotated. (The measures of "open two and stop two" will be implemented from 17:00 on September 19, 2021, and will be divided into two batches.)

An enterprise in the Wujiang area of Suzhou revealed that the local printing and dyeing company was scheduled to stop production in September, from September 19 to October 1, divided into four groups, involving dozens of companies.

A textile printing and dyeing company in Nantong issued a holiday notice, combined with the requirements of relevant departments to resolutely curb the blind development of high energy-consuming and high-polluting projects, to orderly regulate the energy consumption of steel wire rope, printing and dyeing and other industries, and decided to have a holiday from September 22 to October 8. 17 days.

Guangdong Province: Starts two stops and five stops, and only retains less than 15% of the total load

According to the results of dual energy consumption control in the first half of the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Qingyuan, the main production area of building ceramics, was listed as a first-level warning. Including ceramics, high-energy-consuming enterprises such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals have all been listed as key energy-consuming doubles. In the control plan. Guangdong Power Grid stated that since September 16 it will implement the “on-two-stop-five” power plan, and implement peak shifts on Sundays, Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays. On peak shift days, only the security power load will be reserved. Below 15% of the total load.

Some regions have notified that the production and use of electricity should be stopped during shifts, and electricity for life, dormitories, dining halls, lighting, security, heat preservation, emergency, etc. should be retained (not more than 20% of the capacity). For customers who do not consciously participate in the overall peak shift, mandatory power outages and additional power outages for 48 hours will be taken as required.

Suspension of production and production restrictions have brought tightening on the supply side, and the severe situation will continue!

In addition to the above-mentioned Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, many regions have also imposed restrictions on the production and operation of high-energy-consuming industries and enterprises based on local conditions.

Yunnan: The average monthly output of industrial silicon companies from September to December is not higher than 10% of the output in August (ie a 90% reduction in output); the average monthly output of the yellow phosphorus production line from September to December shall not exceed 10% of the output in August 2021 ( That is to reduce production by 90%).

Inner Mongolia: From 2021, Inner Mongolia will no longer approve coke (blue charcoal), calcium carbide, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), synthetic ammonia (urea), methanol, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, soda ash, ammonium phosphate, yellow phosphorus...no downstream Converted polycrystalline silicon, monocrystalline silicon and other new capacity projects.

Shaanxi: From September to December, the newly built "two highs" projects must not be put into production. The newly built "two highs" projects that have been put into production this year will have a maximum output of 60% of the previous month. Other "two highs" enterprises will reduce the operating load of their production lines. , Suspension of submerged arc furnaces to limit production and other measures to ensure a 50% reduction in production in September.

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Although there have been restrictions on power consumption during peak power consumption in previous years, the situation of "opening two and stopping five", "limiting 90% of production", and "stopping production of thousands of enterprises" is unprecedented. If the electricity is long-term, the production capacity will definitely not keep up with the demand, and the order can only be further reduced, making the demand side supply more tight. For the chemical industry, which consumes more energy, the traditional peak season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” is already in short supply. The superimposed double control of energy consumption will lead to a reduction in the supply of high-energy-consuming chemicals, as well as the continuous increase in raw material coal and natural gas prices. , It is expected that the overall chemical product prices in the fourth quarter will continue to rise and hit the high point. Enterprises will also face the dual pressure of price increases and shortages, and the severe situation will continue!

The market is out of control! Raw material prices are constantly rising!

Last week’s list of commodity price rises and falls, 61 commodities in the chemical sector rose month-on-month, of which 19 commodities rose by more than 5%, accounting for 19.2% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 commodities were yellow phosphorus. (73.91%), dichloromethane (56.84%), phosphoric acid (41.76%).

A total of 15 commodities fell month-on-month, and a total of 2 commodities fell more than 5%, accounting for 2% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 products that fell were butadiene (-9.24%) and n-butanol ( Industrial grade) (-5.44%), boric acid (-3.83%). The average increase and decrease this week was 4.62%.

From the product point of view, affected by the "dual control" and double festivals, soaring products have emerged one after another. Specifically:

Yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid rose together

The price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose sharply. According to the data, the offer at the beginning of the week was 34,500 CNY/ton, and it had risen to 60,000 CNY/ton on weekends, representing an increase of 73.91% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 285.85%.

The Yunnan Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice of the Office of the Leading Group for Energy Conservation Work of Yunnan Province on Resolutely Doing a Good Job in Dual Control of Energy Consumption”, which mentioned that the production control of the yellow phosphorus industry should be strengthened to ensure that the average monthly output of the yellow phosphorus production line from September to December 2021 is not allowed. More than 10% of the output in August 2021 (ie a 90% reduction in output).

Affected by this news, the output of yellow phosphorus is expected to decrease sharply, and downstream sources have begun to purchase yellow phosphorus. As the yellow phosphorus spot tensions intensify, the price of yellow phosphorus continues to rise sharply. The market price of yellow phosphorus has risen, the voltage load of yellow phosphorus enterprises has been limited, the production capacity has been reduced, and the spot shortage has intensified. The prices of phosphate ore and coke in the upstream have increased, and the prices of phosphoric acid in the downstream have risen all the way. The downstream has begun to purchase yellow phosphorus at high prices, and the acceptance of high-priced yellow phosphorus is relatively high. Overall market confidence is good and the upstream and downstream support is strong. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will hardly have downward expectations in the short term.

Epichlorohydrin: Break through 20,000 yuan!

The main reason for the upward trend of epichlorohydrin is that, on the one hand, it has strong cost support, and on the other hand, under the influence of "dual control", the start of Jiangsu's installations has fallen sharply, and the supply is expected to be greatly reduced.

The market price of epichlorohydrin on September 18 was 20,400 CNY/ton, an increase of 5,700 CNY/ton from the beginning of the month. At present, the downstream is mainly based on on-demand procurement. It is expected that epichlorohydrin will still have room to rise in the short term, and the short-term quotation may be 20,500-21,000 CNY/ton.

Epoxy resin: The quotation broke 40,000 CNY/ton, and it rose 3,000 yuan within the week!

Upstream raw materials rose, coupled with successive shutdowns in Jiangsu, Anhui and other places due to measures such as dual control and power curtailment, the market sentiment was boosted. The quotation of epoxy resin exceeded 37,500 CNY/ton during the week, and some holders quoted 40,000 CNY/ton. . The supply and demand side of epoxy resin is positive, and the pre-holiday stocking demand still exists. It is expected that epoxy resin will continue to operate at a high level.

Titanium dioxide: another 800! The price exceeded 21,000 CNY/ton!

The increase in export orders for titanium dioxide, high freight rates, and the superposition of national power rationing, dual control and other measures, Guangxi Jinmao Titanium Industry issued a price increase letter, which will increase by 800 CNY/ton from today, which may cause other peers to follow the trend and increase prices. The downstream can hardly match the high price, so it is mainly bought only when it is needed. It is expected that titanium dioxide will continue to run at a high level in the short term.

Silicone: Qi Fei was notified of the price increase, and some products exceeded 50,000 yuan!

Due to policy tightening + market speculation, according to market news, silicone-specific silicon blocks have soared to 45,000 CNY/ton. Zhejiang Xin'an, Inner Mongolia Hengyecheng and other silicone companies have closed the market without reporting. The market supply has been tightened rapidly, and the world has started. Grab the silicon plan!

Nanjing Desheng and Dongguan Gangtian issued price increase letters today, and downstream companies also issued price increase notices. It is expected that silicone will exceed the 50,000 yuan mark!

Costs have risen by 30%, and home appliance companies have suffered heavy losses

Since the beginning of this year, commodity prices have continued to rise and have remained relatively high so far. Among the home appliance raw materials, the LME 3-month aluminum, rebar (active) and plastics index rose by 27.34%, 27.42% and 6.73% respectively. The LME 3-month copper reported at the beginning of the year at 7856 US dollars/ton, which has now risen to 9535 US dollars/ton. 21.37%.

Plastics, compressors, and packaging materials such as cartons and foam are all rising in price. The main raw material of compressors is steel, so the price rises, ranging from 8% to 10%. The cost of refrigerators and freezers has risen by about 25%. The price of various raw materials for electric fans has risen by nearly 50%, pushing up the cost of the whole machine.