Supply and demand stalemate, PTA price consolidation

Capacity utilization of PTA in China

Recently, the high PTA market price consolidation, after the National Day holiday, part of the PTA device has resumed operation, the supply side of the expected increment, resulting in the HIGH PTA price fell, the spot market transaction atmosphere is flat, the base narrow range weakened. Power limit, double control and other factors have become hot words in the population, and some operators are increasing their cautious attitude. At present, the power limit policy for the downstream market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is still being adjusted, resulting in the continuous low demand side.

First of all, PTA supply rose after low. After the return of the National Day holiday, PTA enterprise devices have resumed operation, including 4.5 million tons of Fuhaichuang, 650 million tons of Yangzi Petrochemical, sichuan Nengtou 1 million tons, Fujian Baihong 1.25 million tons and Honggang petrochemical 2.5 million tons of devices have resumed operation; In addition, the plant of 2.25 million tons and 3.75 million tons of Yishanda is gradually recovering after a short stop, and the PTA operating rate has been increased to 73.98%.

However, the 1.5 million tons of jiaxing Petrochemical plant and 1.5 million tons of Honggang Plant have not yet been specified for the restart time. Hengli Petrochemical Line 5 is scheduled to be stopped on October 8 and restarted after two weeks of maintenance. Overall, with the restart of some PTA plants, the supply has increased, and the current daily output is 140,100 tons.

Polyester end demand has not picked up significantly. After the festival, the phenomenon of control in some areas continued, involving Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou and other places. Domestic leading polyester enterprises Hengyi, Tongkun and Xinfengming continued to reduce production and negative, and the market supply was further reduced. Although China Resources, Hengming restart, but more maintenance, so polyester load is still near 76.75%. Short-term polyester market device trend is not much, some early production reduction, maintenance device is expected to restart, is expected to short-term polyester industry load at 77-78% level.

In general, in the short term, the supply end of PTA may be at a high level, while the rise of polyester demand is still a long way to go. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is a tendency of exhaustion in short cycle PTA. However, the cost side still has a steady upward driving force, which supports PTA well. Under the long-short game, PTA mainly consolidates at high level.