Coal prices will rise at the end of the month

In the first half of April, just before the maintenance of Daqin Line, the actual trading price of coal at the port showed a trend: first, it continued to rise slightly, then fell; the price of coal rose from 622 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 634 CNY/ton, and then fell to 632 CNY/ton. Despite the off-season coal use, coastal power plants began to repair their units, but downstream demand is still good; in the second half of the month, coal prices in the port market are expected to fall first and then rise, even if they fall, the decline will not be significant.

1. High cost of shipper.

Although pithead coal prices in some areas fell slightly, they remained high, and pithead coal prices supported the port coal prices to remain firm, even if the port coal prices fell, the decline would not be significant. It is expected that in the second half of April, the coal trading price in the port market will fluctuate between 620-635 CNY/ton, and there will be no big ups and downs.

2. Some kinds of coal are in short supply. 

Despite the weakening of downstream demand and the decrease of ships pulling coal to port, it is still the overhaul period of Daqin Line at present, and the inadequate import of coal in port is still the main problem. In the ports around Qinhuangdao, Huanghua and Caofeidian in the Bohai Sea, the price of high-quality coal with low sulfur and low water is still in short supply. In addition, due to the extension of customs clearance time and policy uncertainties, the import of Australian coal in China's coastal areas has declined significantly, while Indonesian coal prices have risen, which makes the domestic coal market still optimistic; in the last week of April, port coal prices are still likely to rise.

3.Daily consumption of power plants is not low.

This year, infrastructure construction in East and South China has been accelerating, which has led to the increase of coal demand in cement, steel and other building materials industries. After the Spring Festival, coal demand in South China has increased rapidly. In April, when coal is used off-season, the daily consumption of coastal power plants is still not low even in the period of overhaul of power plant units; for the past few days, the daily consumption of six major coastal power plants has remained around 670,000 tons. And the state-owned big mines raise annual and monthly prices, also make the market bullish mood rise.

4. The economic situation is good.

In the first quarter of this year, the national economy operated steadily. The long-term development trend of China's economy has not changed from stable to good, stable and progressive. Economic growth is changing to high-quality development, which will further boost energy demand and increase the proportion of electricity in terminal consumption. This year, the demand for electricity and coal will also increase. Coal demand in coastal areas is booming, with a slight increase of 4.9 million tons in coal shipments around Bohai Sea ports in the first quarter and an expected increase in coal demand in coastal areas in the second quarter.