Supply and demand analysis of PX in China in December

In November, the output of PX was 1.72 million tons, and the processing fee was too low. Many factories had load reduction and shutdown. Therefore, PX market also ushered in a large number of inventory removal in November, and now the market has entered December. What is the adjustment of market supply and demand this month?

Supply: PX output next month, zhejiang Petrochemical four sets of plant load is expected to run 70%-75%, Sinochem Quanzhou maintenance, PX output is estimated to be around 1.83 million tons in December.

Demand: Baihong 2.5 million tons, Zhuhai Ineos chemical 1.1 million tons, Shanghai Yadong 750,000 tons are routine maintenance, Honggang petrochemical 2.5 million tons of accidental failure, Yishanda Lian 2.25 million tons of advance maintenance plan, Hengli Petrochemical 5# maintenance time is not clear, can invest 1 million tons to restart, Fu Chemical trade load 70%. According to the calculation of domestic PTA plant restart and maintenance, the monthly supply of domestic PTA increased to 4.5084 million tons in December. The increase of monthly supply mainly came from the increase of days, and the daily inventory was concentrated in the latter part of this month.

Market expectation: Supply side PX production increase in December, December is a big month, overlay zhejiang petrochemical load increase; The output of the demand side also increased in a narrow range. According to the estimation of supply and demand, the PX gap in December is expected to be around 1.15 million tons. Based on the current monthly import data of 1.1-1.2 million tons, it is expected that the PX social inventory in December will not change much. At present, PX continues to run at the bottom, and PX processing fees are supported at the bottom, but the recent polyester production reduction restricts the rebound strength of PXN.