Coke market supply and demand boom coke enterprises in the third round of rising

Since April, coke prices in the main coke producing areas of China have been raised successfully for two rounds, with a cumulative increase of 200 CNY/ton.

According to the understanding of China Coal Resources Network, the second round of increase has been basically implemented at present. Some coke enterprises with high sulphur still have the behavior of increase in the near future, and the third round of increase in coke enterprises is in the process of brewing. However, Jiao Enterprises said that this was only a supplement to the second round of increase.

As of May 14, the metallurgical coke index of Luliang quasi-first grade in Shanxi Province was 1900 CNY/ton, with a weekly rise of 100 CNY/ton and a monthly rise of 200 CNY/ton; the metallurgical coke index of Tangshan quasi-first grade in Hebei Province was 2110 CNY/ton, with a weekly rise of 100 CNY/ton and a monthly rise of 200 CNY/ton; the metallurgical coke index of Rizhao Port was 2070 CNY/ton, with a weekly rise of 50 CNY/ton and a monthly rise of 120 CNY/ton. At present, coke enterprises in Linfen and Lvliang areas of Shanxi Province have recently limited their production by a small margin, but their influence on the coke supply side is limited due to intermittent production restriction.

But the BF production limit in Tangshan area is not as expected as expected, and there is no trend to increase the production limit. At present, the average daily output of crude steel is still high, which supports the demand for coke.

Most of Jiao enterprises have no stock accumulation, and the shipment is smooth. They are still cautiously optimistic about the future market. In the case of ports, inventory remains high and needs to be gradually digested at reasonable prices, especially when the ports are close to full storage, it is necessary to depot. In the recent weakening of futures market, TRADERS'willingness to ship goods has increased, and spot quotations for some quasi-primary coke resources have been reduced by 30 CNY/ton to about 2070 CNY/ton.

Analysis shows that due to the recent decline in steel prices, coke enterprises are relatively cautious about the third round of increase. In the current situation that coke demand is still supporting, it is not excluded that coke enterprises have continued to tentative increase in the near future, but the range or narrowing. 

In fact, after two rounds of increase, the pressure of coke price is greater, and the biggest driving force for further increase is still. If the coke supply keeps at the current level, the coke price will surely come down again under pressure, based on the capacity of coking in the main production area or the increase of environmental production restriction. As a result, coke prices will remain stable for a short time. The future trend will depend on the change of environmental protection policy in Shanxi coking industry and the progress of production restriction in Tangshan Iron and Steel Works. In the case of high overall inventory, once the expected production limit is difficult to meet, prices are afraid to fall again.