The Notice of Logistics Outage in 2022 Is Here!

It is now at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. In previous years, the rhythm of working overtime for 30 days has not appeared this year. Except for the stricter control, suspension of work and temporary traffic control in many areas affected by the epidemic, many in my country The chemical industry chain companies in the region issued notices of suspension of work and business, and began to do the end of the year. Even logistics and transportation companies have successively announced the date of cessation of orders, reminding everyone to hurry up and place orders and deliver goods.

In the suspension notice circulating on the Internet, the transit stop time in the northwest region is January 10, and the direct stop time is January 12; the transit stop time in the southwest region is January 15 and the direct stop time is January 18. On January 15th, the transit stop time in South China is January 15 and the direct stop time is January 15-21; the transit stop time in East China is January 15-20, and the direct stop time is January 15- 21st.

It is not difficult to see that most logistics companies will generally be out of service around mid-January, and some areas will be out of service around January 10. transport. In addition, companies in the coatings, chemical and other industries have also issued holiday notices to remind customers to stock up in advance, the longest holiday is 39 days.

In addition to the advance holiday for logistics, Ningbo, Zhejiang, has recently been caught in the "vortex" of the epidemic. According to big data, during the New Year's Day, the top three destinations (provinces) moved out of Ningbo are Zhejiang Province (57.57%) and Jiangsu Province (8.76%). ), Shanghai (6.28%), that is to say, most of the people are in the three major economic provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, which means that Eastern China may be in danger of the epidemic.

Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang are also major chemical provinces. There are more than 2,000 chemical companies in Jiangsu, more than 6,000 chemical companies in Zhejiang, and hundreds in Shanghai, covering petrochemicals, fine chemicals, chlor-alkali chemicals, refining and so on. These three major chemical towns are all located in East China and distributed in the Yangtze River Delta Economic Belt.

At the end of last year, the epidemic situation in Zhejiang was severe, and more than 20 listed companies announced the suspension of production. And this year just started, Ningbo, Zhejiang, "one wave has not been flattened again". It seems that a part of a major chemical province has suffered a severe setback, but in fact, the impact on the chemical industry is only the tip of the iceberg. 

Polyester Industry Chain

The Ningbo area involves a lot of polyester industry. PX involves a total production capacity of about 8.7 million tons in Ningbo area, PTA involves a total production capacity of 9.4 million tons in Ningbo area, and MEG Ningbo involves a total production capacity of 1.15 million tons.

Olefin

The propylene production capacity in East China reached 13.55 million tons/year, accounting for 27% of the production capacity; while the propylene production capacity in Ningbo reached 3.81 million tons/year, accounting for 28% of the total production capacity in East China and 7.63% of the total production capacity in the country.
The ethylene production capacity in East China reached 12.41 million tons/year, which accounted for 28% of the total production capacity, while Ningbo’s ethylene production capacity totaled 2.06 million tons/year, accounting for 4.71% of the country’s total production capacity.

Aromatic chain

The two aromatic hydrocarbon companies in Ningbo Zhenhai area are Ningbo Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Sinochem Petrochemical. The company's styrene production capacity is 655,000 tons/year, and PX production capacity is 600,000 tons/year.
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At the same time, there are also petrochemical enterprises in Ningbo area such as Zhejiang Railway Dafeng Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical, LG Yongxing Chemical, etc. The local shutdown and production will bring the risk of supply interruption in the chemical industry chain. In the case of strengthened control and hindered automobile transportation, shipping, and shipping, manufacturers stopped delivering goods, spot liquidity was tight, and the stocks of various chemicals in the market were tight, which also ignited an anxiety state.

The "black swan" incident in 2021 has passed, but many force majeure is clearly not over. In addition to the counterattack of the epidemic, the dual control of energy consumption, energy crisis, high shipping prices, and hard-to-find cases of one box have not been completely alleviated. It means that the situation of the chemical industry is still difficult to appear "turning point", low product inventory, low operating rate, mismatch of supply and demand, etc. may still be the main theme of 2022.