August 21st, news:
Today (August 20, 2026), the phenol market showed a strong rebound and fluctuation. Several companies, including Yangzhou Shiyi, Shandong Fuyu, and Lihuayi Weiyuan, increased their factory prices. The facilities are operating normally, and the overall inventory levels are not high, providing support for the short-term market. From the analysis of the average difference indicators, the 5-day and 10-day average differences have increased compared to yesterday, while the 20-day average difference continues to decline, indicating a strong rebound with a bias towards more fluctuation. The price is at a medium level in the 1-year cycle, with some flexibility for both increases and decreases, while it is at a medium-high level in the 60-day and 3-month cycles, suggesting that after a short-term rebound, attention should be paid to the upper pressure.
I. Fundamentals Overview
On August 20, 2026, the following are the key developments in the phenol market:
Yangzhou Shiyou's 320,000 tons/year phenol and acetone plant is operating normally, mainly shipping under contract, with low inventory levels. The phenol price has been increased by 200 CNY/ton to 8,400 CNY/ton (effective from August 19).
Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical's 250,000 tons/year phenol and acetone unit is operating normally, with average inventory. Shipments are being made according to plan. The price of phenol has been increased by 50 CNY/ton to 8,250 CNY/ton.
The two Lihua Yiyuan phenol-ketone units, with a combined capacity of 700,000 tons per year, are operating normally and shipping according to schedule. The ex-factory settlement price for phenol has been raised by 50 CNY per ton to 8,350 CNY per ton (effective August 19).
II. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value | Yesterday's Value | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 121.00 | 63.50 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -29.50 | -75.00 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | -180.63 | -177.38 | - |
III. Signal Status Determination
The current combination of mean difference change directions is (+, +, -), which constitutes a strong rebound (bullish, rebound nature) signal.
IV. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is characterized by volatility (with a slight upward bias). Reason: The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have both risen compared to yesterday, indicating that short-term price rebound momentum is emerging. However, the 20-day moving average continues to decline, suggesting that the medium-term trend remains unchanged. Since the directions of change among these three moving averages are not entirely consistent, we classify this as a volatile market. Additionally, several factories have raised their factory prices, and inventory levels remain relatively low—fundamental factors that provide support for the market. As a result, in the short term, the market exhibits strong rebound characteristics with a slight upward bias.
Five, Positional Spatial Reference
1-year cycle price position: median, meaning there is a certain degree of flexibility for both increases and decreases, with no obvious extreme high or low limits.
Price levels for the 60-day and 3-month cycles: Mid-to-high range, indicating that after a short-term rebound, there is some upward pressure ahead, and caution is advised regarding the risk of a pullback.
Six, Display of Trend Chart
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
