February BOPA First up and then down after the Holiday Demand Recovery is Less Than Expected

1. February BOPA market review

In February 2022, the BOPA market rose first and then fell, with limited overall volatility. The main reason is that after the Spring Festival, driven by macro-level news and downstream replenishment demand is expected, in the first half of the slicing price shock higher, driving the BOPA market up slightly.

In February, the BOPA industry start-up load rate dropped slightly, mainly because of short-term shutdowns during the Spring Festival, but the overall market spot supply had little impact.

According to statistics, as of February 28, the mainstream transaction price of BOPA-15μ step-by-step composite film in East China market is 24,000-24,500 CNY/ton, and there are certain transaction conditions at low prices. The price of the day is 250 CNY/ton lower than the previous trading day, 250 CNY/ton lower than the same period last week and 250 CNY/ton lower than the same period last month.

Some enterprises' reference quotation: 15μ step-by-step laminated grade nylon film was quoted at RMB24,500-25,000/ton, step-by-step printing grade nylon film was quoted at RMB25,500-26,000/ton, and synchronous film was quoted at RMB26,000-27,000/ton.

The average profit level of BOPA in February was about 96.88 CNY/ton, which was 423.07 CNY/ton higher than the average profit level in the previous month. The month-end raw material slice price reference 15300 CNY/ton, down 700 CNY/ton compared with the same period last month, down at 4.34%.

2. February BOPA industry operation data analysis

The monthly production capacity of BOPA industry in February was about 26.24 kilotons, flat compared with the level of the previous month. The monthly output was about 22.95 kilotons, down 0.35 kilotons or 1.50% from the previous month, and the start-up load rate of BOPA industry was 87.45% in February, down 1.36 percentage points from the previous month and up 2.362 percentage points from the same period last year. The average order quantity of manufacturers was around 14.33 days, 0.34 days lower than the previous month.

3. BOPA market forecast after the market

Cost side: In March, the raw materials caprolactam and slicing start load rate may be lowered, the overall market is weak and oscillating, the cost side support is general. The downstream demand for slices continues to recover, but it is still difficult to see the sentiment of large volume take. Overall, the PA6 market trend is expected to weaken in March, or easy to fall difficult to rise, there is a bottom and a small rebound may be.

Supply and demand side: the supply side, the normal production of manufacturers to start good, the recent positive orders to ship mainly, the spot supply is sufficient. Demand side, part of the downstream and terminal factory start is still low, and the early inventory is still not digested, no strong willingness to stock up, is expected to follow up the new single is still limited.