How Long Can Crude Oil, Gold and Other Commodities Run Wild?

[1] The sharp rise in asset prices must be accompanied by a flood of money.

(1) the 2008 financial crisis, the stock market, crude oil, gold plummeted, in November 2008 the Federal Reserve opened quantitative easing, two months after the U.S. stock stabilization to open a 10-year bull market journey, New York crude oil from $ 33 to more than $ 110 (up about 3 times), gold from $ 730 to $ 1870 (up more than 1.5 times).

(2) The new crown epidemic crisis in 2020, the stock market, crude oil and gold plunged, in April 2020, the Federal Reserve opened full quantitative easing, followed by a surge in U.S. stocks, gold rose from $1,400 to $2,000 (up about 50%) and crude oil futures rose from $10 (with a negative -37 delivery) to more than $100 (up more than 10 times).

(3) Marx tells us that objective laws do not depend on the will of man. History is always strikingly similar and does not depend on the will of man. This reminds me of Du Mu's "Alphabanggong Fu": "The Qin people do not have time to mourn themselves but the descendants mourn, the descendants mourn but do not appreciate, also make the descendants and repeat mourning the descendants also".

[2] The feast of asset prices ends when the monetary tide recedes (closing the gates and raising interest rates).

(1) 2014-2015 financial crisis, the Fed discusses and exits QE, crude oil and gold plunge, 2016-2019, the Fed raises and tapers, crude oil and gold slump, stock market sees a brief adjustment in the phase of rate hike and taper in 2016 and 2019.

(2) In early 2022, the Fed begins to withdraw from QE and is expected to start raising interest rates in June 2022, U.S. stocks continue to fall since the year to adjust, gold and crude oil have not fallen for the time being due to international conflicts exacerbating supply shortages and risk aversion, but prices have reached the highs of 2011-2012.

(3) 2008 financial crisis quantitative easing lasted longer and exit QE more slowly; 2020 new crown crisis quantitative easing is strong, short duration, and exit QE faster.

[3] The world is not so much new (the song is over).

Referring to the 2014-2015 Fed exit QE open interest rate hikes in asset price performance, the current round of gold and crude oil asset prices are already in the bubble stage, even if they can still be maintained at high levels until the end of the year, also belong to the upside is very limited, the risk is much greater than the benefits. The music is nearing its end and the tide is about to recede, it's time to leave, don't wait for the tide to recede before you find yourself swimming naked!

【4】 Recognizing the past is to lay out the future (survival from the dead).

Hindsight, like a pig beforehand, explain the past, but not to make analysis and predictions for the future? This is not possible! The past is not admonished, the future can be pursued.

From the trend of the two major crises found that in 2014-2015, the Fed withdrew from QE, A shares out of a wave of comprehensive bull market (especially small and medium-sized venture), 2016-2018, the Fed rate hike and tapering, A shares out of a wave of value bull, even from mid-2014 to the end of 2017, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose from 2,000 points to 3,500 points, a 3.5-year gain of 75%, annualized return of about 17%. And the U.S. stocks also rose from 1900 points to 2800 points during the same period, with an annualized gain of about 11%.

So, do not go after high crude oil gold, save the bullets, commodities plunge when it is the time to bottom the stock market