Caustic Soda Prices Continue to Decline in January

January 30 news

I. Price Trends

According to monitoring data, the price of caustic soda in January showed a continuous downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 738 CNY/ton, and by the end of the month, the price in Shandong had dropped to 636 CNY/ton, a decrease of 13.82%, and a 23.1% decline compared to the same period last year. On January 29, the chlor-alkali index stood at 724 points, down 1 point from the previous day, a 65.98% drop from the highest point of 2128 points (October 24, 2021), and a 1.69% increase from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5, 2016. (Note: The period refers to December 1, 2011, to present.)

2. Market Analysis

According to the survey data, the caustic soda prices have been continuously declining in January. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is around 560-650 CNY/ton. In Jiangsu, the caustic soda prices are stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda around 680-790 CNY/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the caustic soda prices are consolidating, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda (converted to 100%) around 2250-2350 CNY/ton. This month, the purchase price of alumina has continued to fall, with the provincial alumina purchase price cumulatively decreasing by 25 CNY/ton to 590 CNY/ton. The supply of caustic soda is ample, and production is at a high level, but the demand from downstream sectors is moderate, leading to a decline in caustic soda prices. By the end of the month, the supply is sufficient, and the recent market entry enthusiasm from the downstream alumina sector is moderate, with the market still in a stalemate, and caustic soda is mostly purchased on a need basis. It is expected that the alumina market will show a weak and volatile trend in the future. Additionally, the data shows that in 2025, China's cumulative import volume of caustic soda was 8,900 tons, a decrease of 45.1% year-on-year, with the cumulative import volume of solid caustic soda at 8,500 tons and liquid caustic soda at 400 tons. China's cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 4,101,100 tons, an increase of 33.6% year-on-year; among which, the cumulative export volume of solid caustic soda was 671,500 tons, an increase of 42.1%, and the cumulative export volume of liquid caustic soda was 3,429,600 tons, an increase of 32.1%.

Analysts believe that in recent times, the caustic soda prices in January have been operating weakly. Recently, downstream sectors in China have mostly been purchasing according to their needs. Although there are adjustments and maintenance plans upstream, the decline in production is limited. The overall supply and demand dynamics suggest that caustic soda will likely maintain a weak operating trend later on, depending specifically on the downstream market demand.