PTA futures positive superposition bottom soaring profit space

Recently, the domestic PTA futures prices continue to rise, the momentum is strong, can not help but recall the PTA last year's high-spirited market. Since July 19, 2018, PTA futures prices have risen like rockets. In just one month, TA809 contracts have risen by 3253 yuan, or 54.6%.

By mid-June of this year, PTA futures reversed the previous negative trend and rebounded sharply, and reached a bottoming rebound. In just over 10 trading days, PTA futures soared nearly 1,000 yuan, from 5082 CNY/ton at the lowest point to 6056 CNY/ton at the highest point. The main contract of PTA futures rose to 5.02% on June 27, reaching a new two-month high. At the same time, the spot market also showed a synchronous rebound trend. According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of June 28, the average PTA spot market price was 6 366 CNY/ton, up 11.34% from the beginning of the month and 8.45% from the same period last year. In addition, the presale price of PTA contract of mainstream large factories in July also increased substantially, with Yisheng Petrochemical increasing 300 yuan to 6600 yuan per ton and Hengli Petrochemical increasing 400 yuan to 6700 yuan per ton. The market is booming and the PTA spot market supply is obviously tightening under the sentiment of buying and not buying polyester raw materials.

PTA, as an important industrial raw material, is a link between the upper and lower reaches of the polyester fiber industry chain. The upper reaches are mainly crude oil-naphtha-PX, while the lower reaches are used to produce various kinds of polyester fiber products such as civil polyester filament. Therefore, the price trend of PTA futures depends on the trend change of raw material cost from crude oil to PX upstream on the one hand, and on the other hand, it depends on the pulling degree of the downstream terminal demand, especially the consumption demand of textiles and clothing. In addition, the PTA industry's own capacity supply-side maintenance rhythm, start-up rate changes and capacity delivery will also have a greater impact.

Oil prices stably rebounded, raw material shortage alleviated pressure

entered mid-June, and international crude oil prices began to show a steady rebound trend. PX and PTA prices thus stop falling and enter the upstream channel, especially PTA futures, to achieve continuous and rapid rise. Some analysts believe that the upstream Hengli Refinery and Chemical Integration PX new production capacity has been put into operation cost shortfall has been digested by the market, follow-up PX new production capacity to achieve real production is basically in the fourth quarter or the end of the year. The process of construction, commissioning and commissioning of PX new plant is uncertain, and it is difficult to directly affect the current PTA1909 main contract.

Polyester inventory declined. Negotiations between China and the United States restarted release demand

As of June 27, polyester load has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, PTA industry start-up rate is 95.20%, polyester load rate has reached a high of 90.13%, ending the downward trend since the beginning of May. After several rounds of digestion of high production and sales, the inventory of polyester manufacturers has been greatly reduced. According to the statistics, the overall inventory of polyester filament market dropped to 10-19 days, of which POY inventory was only about 5 days, and the inventory has dropped to the lowest level after the Spring Festival.

On June 18, after the telephone conversation between the leaders of China and the United States, the trade war entered the negotiation stage again. On June 29, at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, the leaders of China and the United States reached bilateral talks and agreed to resume bilateral economic and trade negotiations. Meanwhile, the United States said it would not impose new tariffs on Chinese exports.

With the new tariff boots landing, the export demand orders in the pre-market are expected to accelerate, and the traditional peak season demand in the third quarter is approaching, and the industry demand will be further released. Overhaul of devices is continuing, and the PTA production capacity is blank.

In June this year, the PTA unit overhaul capacity involved is about 9.9 million tons. CCFEI data show that the average start-up rate of PTA industry dropped to 76.8% in June, lower than 78.8% in the same period last year. In the short term, PTA equipment is under constant overhaul and tight supply. Mainstream large factories such as Hengli 2.2 million tons of maintenance plan news also circulated in the market from time to time, further deepening the market's anxiety about supply tension. According to industry sources, only 2.2 million tons of new capacity of Xinfengming will be put into operation this year, and it is known that it has entered the closing period of installation. Full production is expected to start in November and December. Therefore, in the third quarter, PTA industry will be in a gap period of production capacity, annual production will only be released in a small amount at the end of the year of the new Fengming device. The trend of PTA is promising, and the relevant stocks or the most profitable.

 A-share related leading companies will benefit fully. At present, Hengli Petrochemical (600345), Hengyi Petrochemical (000703), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) and Tongkun Stock (601233) are the leading PTA companies in China. Hengli Petrochemical (600346) PTA production capacity of 6.6 million tons per year, output of 7 million tons, currently ranked first in China. Yisheng Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengyi Petrochemical's PTA rights and interests production capacity are 6.08 million tons and 5.78 million tons per year respectively, and Tongkun's shares are 3.7 million tons. It is worth mentioning that, as the first privately owned refining project, Hengli 20 million tons/year refining and chemical extraction project has taken the lead in putting into operation. The 4.5 million tons/year PX integrated pipeline transportation equipment supported by the project can save a lot of tariffs and freight for the company, and the product has a quality premium of 50-100 CNY/ton higher than that of the same industry, which will further enhance the company's PTA business profit.