BDO Market Conditions Remain in a Wait-and-See Mode

September 05, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from September 1st to 5th, the average price of BDO in China remained at 7,542 CNY/ton, a decrease of 9.90% month-over-month and a decrease of 6.55% year-over-year. The BDO market is holding steady after a decline. As prices have reached a low point, some downstream buyers have increased their restocking to meet essential needs, leading to an overall increase in demand. Factories are generally managing to ship goods, and with increasing pressure from industry losses, suppliers are mainly focused on stabilizing the market.

Supply side, after the second and third phase units of Tunhe restarted and operated stably, the Shaanxi Heima unit was restarted at 70% capacity after a short shutdown. Other units are operating relatively stably. The overall supply in the industry has increased, but the support from the supply side is moderate. The BDO supply side is affected by negative factors.

Statistics on the operational status of equipment at selected manufacturing enterprises:

Cost Perspective:
Regarding raw materials, calcium carbide: China's calcium carbide market has generally shown a narrow downward trend. As for methanol, the Chinese methanol market continues to remain weak; as of 10:00 a.m. on September 5, the reference price for methanol in Taicang, China, stood at 2,260 CNY per ton. With both calcium carbide and methanol trading in a subdued, consolidating range, BDO costs are being weighed down by bearish factors on the cost side.

Demand Side: Under the traditional "Golden September" seasonal boost, terminal demand has shown some recovery. As a result, operating rates in downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBT, PBAT, GBL-NMP, and TPU have all increased to varying degrees, leading to higher consumption of raw materials. Meanwhile, with BDO prices hitting record lows, several downstream factories have stepped up urgent restocking activities, further supporting relatively solid sales performance for BDO producers. However, the overall demand outlook for BDO remains tilted toward bearish factors.

Market Forecast: The BDO market is witnessing simultaneous growth in both supply and demand, while price negotiations remain competitive. As a result, the market continues to stay in a stalemate. BDO analysts expect China’s BDO market to remain largely stable in the near term.