Overseas non-ferrous metal strength will drive domestic metal upside

"By the continued impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, financial markets high inflationary concerns reignited, European natural gas prices rose sharply, taking into account the continued energy crisis in Europe and consumer resilience to support the LME related metals continue to go to the warehouse, the recent overseas non-ferrous metals also showed relative strength."

Yide futures non-ferrous metals analyst Zhang Sheng Han said, Russia and Ukraine situation on the supply side of overseas metals mainly lies in the impact of sanctions on Russia resulting in energy and commodity trade disruption and Europe's high cost of electricity is difficult to down the problem, in the current energy crisis sentiment dominates the face of the basis, is expected to overseas non-ferrous metals overall strength will drive domestic prices of related metals upward.

　　Gu Fengda, head of Guoxin Futures Research and Consulting Department, said that behind the recent huge fluctuations in commodities, is a short-term geopolitical conflict under the failure of the commodity self-regulatory capacity of the "stress response", in the face of the great power game intensified geopolitical conflict and supply chain impact, countries have to strengthen the bulk of resource goods security and reserves, many industrial and financial capital Many industries and financial capitals have intensified their competition for resource products, forming the dilemma of "resource anxiety, grabbing goods is the hard truth".

Although in the medium to long term China's financial market is more resilient to falls and recovery, domestic commodity supply and demand is also more stable compared to overseas, but the continued geopolitical conflict also brings the systemic risk of global economic recession, intensifying the global change in the reshaping of relations between major powers brings great turmoil, adjustment and change, domestic enterprises should do a good job of risk planning and active response, it is recommended that upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain strengthen to lock in profits It is recommended that upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain should strengthen their efforts to lock in profits by hedging and pay attention to capital management and risk control.

　　Centaline Futures non-ferrous researcher Liu Peiyang said, from the linkage between overseas commodity markets and Chinese commodity markets, the two markets are both linked and independent.

The linkage lies in the fact that the gap between supply and demand at home and abroad will be repaired through the form of international trade, and the independence lies in the fact that the contradiction between supply and demand in the overseas and domestic markets is not the same, and the prices run with their own logic, considering that the current market speculation triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still not over, and events beyond market expectations are still happening, the probability of abnormal fluctuations in the domestic commodity futures market is still there, so it is recommended that investors should pay close attention to the domestic and international The difference and connection between the markets, control positions, prevent risks and invest rationally.

　　"The main trading logic of the recent commodity prices represented by aluminium and nickel lies in the factors outside the country, especially in the context of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, which still has greater uncertainty and requires continued attention to the follow-up sanctions imposed on Russia by European and American countries."

Jinrui Futures Institute believes that, unlike overseas, the domestic commodity fundamentals have not seen obvious contradictions, in the consumption of good expectations, non-ferrous metals in the second quarter is likely to maintain the depot, forming a certain amount of support for prices, but the medium and long-term resource easing is expected to limit the price upside space.