Crisis coexists, opening a new stage of industrial structure

In the second half of 2019, 7.3 million tons of new PX capacity will be put into the Asian market, and the progress of new factories will also be concerned by the industry. In the past three months, China's PX supply and demand are comparable. On the one hand, although new projects have been launched to increase domestic effective output, the initial increase is effective, which usually takes about one month to adjust the period; on the other hand, domestic PTA equipment maintenance and restart are all involved, and the new wind is 2.2 million tons per year to release new demand, so PX. Supply and demand remain relatively balanced. In the second half of the year, there are weaker consolidation expectations for international oil prices and limited PX cost-side support due to rising risk aversion sentiment, geopolitical conflict concerns and uncertainties in OPEC's production reduction and extension.

In the second half of the year, there was an increase of 5.9 million tons in PTA supply: 2.2 million tons in Xinfengming, 1.2 million tons in Kunyu plant in Zhongtai and 2.5 million tons in Hengli Petrochemical Company. In addition to the anticipation of new capacity put into operation at the supply side, the output variable lies in the anticipation of equipment maintenance. From the demand side, the new capacity of polyesterin the second half of the year will reach 3.94 million tons. Throughout the second half of the year, there is a possibility that the supply side will rise steadily, especially after the new Fengming plant is put into operation in September, PTA production will increase substantially.

In summary, the polyester raw material market in the second half of the year can be described as "dangerous" and "opportunity". Although the overall demand market has been added, there are still doubts about the actual effective demand, and the macroeconomic environment is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, the fluctuation of the polyester raw material market is relatively slow down, and the operation needs. Be cautious.