Inventory of Polyester Products Rose Rapidly and Other info

At present, the rapid reduction of processing fees and the low profits of the industry are also related to the weak market demand. The reporter learned that, after the holiday, polyester production and sales performance was light, the average production and sales were less than 50%, and the polyester product inventory increased rapidly.

It is understood that the inventory of FDY and DTY has been around 30 days, the inventory of POY has been around 25-26 days, and the inventory of polyester short has been around 14 days.

The inventory of each product has reached the high point of last year. The downstream polyester yarn inventory has also continued to rise, among which the inventory of staple fiber products has been close to a historical high, and the inventory of filament yarn has continued to rise, both at the highest level in the same period in history.

The weak polyester production and sales also suppressed the enthusiasm of polyester factories to purchase raw materials, resulting in a slow downward transfer of PTA inventory.

"The formation of polyester product inventory is related to the production of polyester factories and the purchasing rhythm of downstream links." Pang Chunyan said that at the end of 2021, oil prices have risen to a high level, terminal orders have performed in general, polyester filament stocks are abundant, and terminal enterprises are hoarding goods.

Not very motivated. At the same time, due to the power outages from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2021, and the possibility of compulsory shutdown of polyester factories around Hangzhou in September 2022, many polyester factories did not arrange maintenance during the Spring Festival this year, resulting in a high operating rate in the industry.

The supply is high but the demand is declining, and the inventory of polyester factories has rebounded significantly.

In this regard, Zheshang Futures analyst Zhu Lihang also believes that the accumulation of polyester products is seasonal accumulation. Judging from the current inventory days, filament and staple stocks have indeed reached a high level.

"High start-up and high inventory are the current status of the polyester market. Whether the subsequent high start-up can be maintained mainly depends on whether the inventory can be digested to a normal level."

Zhu Lihang said that there is still room for price reduction and promotion in the current polyester efficiency level, and terminal demand is also During the recovery, it is difficult to evaluate effectively.

If the effect of subsequent price reduction and promotion is good, the high start of polyester construction is expected to be maintained. "From what we have learned so far, the terminal orders are not particularly ideal, and they mainly focus on processing orders before the holiday.

Compared with everyone's optimistic expectations before the holiday, it is indeed somewhat unsatisfactory, and further follow-up is still required.

On February 15, an outbreak occurred in Suzhou City. Shengze Town, Wujiang District of the city, as a major textile town in China, was affected to a certain extent. The reporter found from the epidemiological survey that the confirmed cases in Suzhou involved employees of Shenghong Chemical Fiber.

In this regard, industry insiders believe that the pressure of epidemic prevention and control of local enterprises will increase. Active epidemic prevention measures, including employee home observation and nucleic acid testing, will have a certain impact on the start of construction of enterprises, but the impact is expected to be short-term.

"Judging from the current information, the Suzhou area has been affected by the epidemic, and there is indeed some inconvenience in logistics, which has affected the downstream recovery progress to a certain extent.

At least from the perspective of the burden of polyester factories, it has not been greatly affected." Zhu Lihang said that because the terminal is still in the process of recovery, the specific impact is not judged for the time being. However, the current situation in Suzhou is still under control, and there will not be much disruption to the operation of the company.

When will the profits of the industrial chain be repaired?

Judging from the profit distribution of the current polyester industry chain, the profit of upstream naphtha has been relatively good. PX started to repair the profit at the end of last year, and it has now returned to the ideal level.

There is room for squeeze in the market outlook. The PTA processing difference is low, and the market outlook may rebound from a low level with the arrival of the centralized maintenance season.

"The profit of ethylene glycol is relatively low, and the profits of the overall ethylene cracking downstream products are relatively poor. Therefore, the news of Sinopec's load reduction has been circulated many times this week.

In the future, ethylene glycol may also have the possibility of profit recovery, mainly through EG conversion to EO. In addition, The overall ethylene cracker is also likely to reduce the negative load." Pang Chunyan said.

Last year, due to losses, the PTA factory was actively overhauled, and at the same time, it continued to reduce the supply of contracted goods. It is understood that compared with last year, the number of large manufacturers signing long-term agreements has been greatly reduced this year since the beginning of the year, which has been repeating history to some extent.

"If the low processing fee is maintained for a long time, when the supply side starts to undergo a large number of maintenance in the later period, there is a certain probability that the contract cargo will be reduced." Zhu Lihang said.

In this regard, Pang Chunyan also believes that if the low processing fee is maintained until March this year, the active maintenance of the device will still occur, and whether it will appear in the end depends on the trend of the processing fee, but the contract reduction should not be repeated.

In her opinion, last year's mainstream supplier contracts were relatively full, and this year, companies may consider it in advance, and the overall number of contracts signed should be lower than last year.

"In 2021, PTA's maintenance will increase due to low profits, resulting in insufficient supply of contract goods for mainstream suppliers, and there will be a phenomenon of reduction of contract goods.

If factory maintenance increases in 2022, manufacturers may also start to reduce the supply of contract goods, but this year suppliers will reduce the supply of contract goods. The proportion of PTA contract goods signed is not high, and the reduction of contract goods by factories may be less than last year." Liu Siqi believes.

It is worth noting that PTA itself is in a seasonal off-season after the holiday, and supply and demand are relatively weak before demand recovers.

"If the current profit level is maintained for a long time, there is a high probability that there will be unexpected maintenance on the PTA supply side. After the price continues to weaken, the overall profit level of the PTA industry chain is also relatively low, not only the PTA processing fee."

In Zhu Lihang It seems that the current level of profits will not last, and the continued decline in prices is also related to the impact of crude oil on the cost side. "As long as the uncertainty of oil prices is settled and the price stabilizes, the profits of the PTA industry chain may be repaired."

According to the status of CCFEI installations, mainstream suppliers have announced the maintenance plans for March and April, and the follow-up depends on the actual implementation of the factory's maintenance.