Summary of Aniline Market in H1 2017

In H1, 2017, the aniline market fluctuated greatly. The fluctuation range was between RMB 7,920/mt (average price in North China and Shandong) and RMB 10,125/mt (average price in East China). The detailed changes will be analyzed in the following:

Phase One: The aniline market increased from early January to H2 February, and then declined from end-February to end-March. The aniline price in North China and Shandong increased from RMB 8,290/mt to RMB 9,910/mt with the increase rate being 19.54%. Then the price declined from RMB 9,910/mt to RMB 8,330/mt, which was down 15.94%. The aniline price in East China increased from RMB 8,575/mt to RMB 10,125/mt and then dropped to RMB 8,425/mt. The growth rate and decrease rate were 18.08% and 16.79% respectively.

During the first phase, the industry profit of aniline was low. Considering the production cost, the Aniline market showed the same trend with Benzene market. Sinopec raised benzene prices from RMB 7,100/mt at the beginning of January to RMB 8,800/mt in H2 February, which increased 23.94%. Then the price declined to RMB 6,300/mt, down 28.41%.

Furthermore, the overall operating rate in January and February was low, being in the range of 58%-65%. The supply was not enough to consume. Then the unit at Nanning Chemical restarted in March, and the supply increased, which dragged down the aniline price.

Phase Two: The aniline market increased from end-March to H2 April and the price remained high for a period of time. From early May to early June, the aniline market showed a downtrend. The average price in North China and Shandong increased from RMB 8,330/mt to RMB 9,960/mt, which was up 19.57%. Then the price went down to RMB 7,920/mt, which was down 20.48%. The average price in East China increased from RMB 8,425/mt to RMB 10,050/mt, up 19.29%. Then the price declined to RMB 8,100/mt, which was down 19.40%.

During this phase, the profit of aniline industry was at a high level. In April, the average profit reached RMB 1,860.71/mt. On the high profits, aniline prices started to show a different trend with benzene market.

From March 28, most unit in Shandong were shut. The supply was tight. Most downstream users purchased goods from East China and Shanxi. On April 26, the 130kt/a units in Shanxi Tianji Group were shut. Hence, the aniline market was firm on the tight supply.

At the end of April, most shut units restarted and the operating rate hit 7087% on the high profits. Then the supply became surplus and the aniline market went down on the high sales pressure.

Phase Three: The aniline market increased from early June to mid-June and showed a downtrend from end-June. The average price in North China and Shandong increased from RMB 7,920/mt to RMB 8,530/mt and then declined to RMB 7,930/mt. The increase and decrease rates were 7.70% and 7.03% respectively. The average price in East China increased from RMB 8,100/mt to RMB 8,850/mt and then declined to RMB 8,300/mt. Increase and decrease rates were 9.26% and 6.21% respectively. During this phase, the fluctuation range is limited.

In Q3, the downstream industries, rubber additives, dyes, medicals, etc, may see more maintenance. The demand for aniline will shrink. Though the 180kt/a unit at Jilin Connell will be shut on July 20, the overall market will be slightly weak. It is predicted that the aniline market may inch down in Q3, 2017.