June 30th, news:
According to the commodity analysis system, the price of petroleum coke from local refineries showed a fluctuating downward trend in June. The average price of medium-sulfur petroleum coke products from major local refineries in China was 3,201.00 CNY/ton on June 30, down 0.85% from 3,228.50 CNY/ton on June 1.
On the cost side: In June, international crude oil prices experienced a significant downward trend, driven by several negative factors including the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the return of crude oil supplies from the Middle East, the U.S. dollar index reaching a 13-month high, weak global demand for crude oil, and downward revisions to oil price forecasts by leading investment banks—all of which combined to create a perfect storm of headwinds. The risk premium previously embedded in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions has largely been fully priced out by the market. Coupled with generally weak fundamentals in global crude oil supply and demand, the crude oil market has plunged sharply.
Supply side: In early June, the concentrated start-up of refining units in Shandong, China, led to an increase in petroleum coke production, with ample supply putting pressure on prices. In mid-June, some refineries underwent phased maintenance, leading to a slight reduction in supply, which became a key support for the rebound in prices. By the end of the month, the maintenance units gradually resumed production, increasing supply once again and limiting the upward potential of prices. In June, the arrival of imported petroleum coke at Chinese ports was relatively concentrated, with port inventory rising month-over-month, providing some relief to the supply gap caused by the reduction in domestic production.
On the demand side: In June, pre-baked anodes remained the largest downstream consumer of petroleum coke. Although high operating rates in the electrolytic aluminum industry provided a solid base for fundamental demand, weakening aluminum prices and stringent cost-control measures by aluminum smelters prompted anode manufacturers to maintain low inventories and procure materials only as needed. As for negative electrode materials, consumption is limited to low-sulfur, high-quality petroleum coke; steady lithium-ion battery orders provide a stable floor for demand, yet corporate profits are thin and willingness to make bulk purchases remains limited, thus providing only structural support for low-sulfur coke while exerting minimal upward pressure on the market for mainstream medium- and high-sulfur qualified coke from independent refineries. Downstream graphite electrode users—electric arc furnace steelmakers—are experiencing subdued operations and overall industry-wide low utilization rates, resulting in relatively low petroleum coke consumption. There has been no incremental demand released throughout the entire period, with only small, sporadic, essential demand being met. As for carbon-increasing agents, downstream industries such as metallurgical silicon and the casting sector remain sluggish, with procurement volumes staying at low levels, making it difficult to generate meaningful positive market effects.
Future Market Forecast: On the supply side, some maintenance-refining plants may resume production in July, leading to a slight increase in supply. On the demand side, downstream sectors continue to lack sustained incremental demand in the short term, and neither the electrolytic aluminum nor the carbon industry has any plans for concentrated stockpiling. Overall, in July, the prices of petroleum coke from independent refineries are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range.
