Southern coal demand will continue to grow this year

This year, China's economic operation has been steadily improving and advancing, mainly with the demand of the electricity industry warming up. From January to July, China's Communist Coal 2.08 billion tons, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year; from January to July, the social electricity consumption increased by 4.6% year-on-year. The main coal consumption hinterland, East and South China, has maintained a small growth trend in coal demand. In the last four months of this year, the mining, road, port, shipping, electricity and other parties intensified cooperation to speed up coal turnover and ensure reliable supply of coal in the south. It is expected that the demand for coal in the coastal areas will remain good, and the amount of coal transferred into the coastal areas of the South will increase by about 15-20 million tons over the same period of last year.

Affected by the trade war, the weakening of industrial power consumption in the southeastern coastal areas, coupled with the constant squeeze of new energy and foreign electricity, has resulted in the declining growth rate of thermal power along the coast, even negative growth in some provinces and municipalities, and a limited increase in coal demand. However, at this stage, China's economy is in the middle and late stages of industrialization, and urbanization is advancing rapidly. With the high-quality development of China's economy, especially the innovative development of manufacturing industry, the rapid development of strategic emerging industries such as big data, and the continuous improvement of residents'lives. In the coming months, coal consumption and coal demand in power plants will remain at a certain level.

With the reduction of raw coal production in the central and Eastern provinces, the import of coal from the South maintained a growth trend, and the dependence on coal from the northern ports was deepened. On the upstream side, the accelerated release of advanced coal production capacity, the main coal producers actively organize production and sales, and coal output and foreign transportation will continue to grow. Major Coal-transporting railways will continue to play an important role. From January to July this year, 1.42 billion tons of coal were transported by railways across the country, an increase of 3% compared with the same period last year. The volume of coal transported to ports around the Bohai Sea increased by about 10 million tons, providing sufficient supply for Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, Caofeidian and other ports. The main coal-producing Ports - Qinhuangdao, Huanghua and Caofeidian welcomed the balanced arrival of vehicles and vessels. Coastal coal transportation was relatively loose. Coal prices continued to fluctuate in a parabolic manner, with little increase and decrease, and basically maintained a relatively stable operation.

From January to July this year, the economic operation has been steadily improving, steadily advancing, and the thermal power generation capacity of power plants above the national scale has increased by 0.1% year-on-year. With the arrival of winter storage and peak winter coal use peak, the total daily consumption of the six coastal power plants will rise to a high level. The cement and chemical industries will resume production, and the demand for coal will increase. Travel supply is also timely, the Bohai Rim Port maintains a busy situation of both supply and demand. In September and October before winter storage, as well as November and December, when the peak of coal for heating in winter, port transportation will be more busy. With the opening of demand in the superimposed peak season, accelerated release of high-quality coal production capacity, tighter control of imported coal and reduced hydropower, the market fundamentals will be significantly improved.