Coal tension will reappear at the end of this month

Up to now, Qinhuangdao Port has 5.47 million tons of coal, a decrease of 870,000 tons compared with August 20. At present, the overhaul of the Daqin Line has not yet started, and the coal storage in Qinhuangdao Port has dropped to 5.47 million tons. It is expected that the coal storage in Qinhuangdao Port will decline after the start of overhaul, and the phenomenon of shortage of high-quality resources and ship cargo will reappear.

1. In mid-August, the author once wrote an article and analyzed that the 25-day Daqin Line overhaul had little impact on the coastal coal market, because in early and mid-August, the daily average number of vehicles entering Daqin Line was low, while at that time, there was no coal shortage in downstream power plants, and there were not many anchor boats under the Bohai Sea harbor. It is judged that once the railway overhaul begins, the coastal coal market will maintain a weak trend of supply and demand. However, from the comprehensive analysis of the current situation of the coastal coal market, the upcoming Daqin Line overhaul will have a great impact on the coastal coal market, which will intensify the tension and promote the price of coal. Coal storage in coastal power plants decreased.

Generally, before the Daqin Line overhaul, the coal storage of power plants needs to be the highest; however, the distance from the overhaul time is getting closer and closer, while the coal storage of the six power plants along the coast has maintained a downward trend; as of yesterday, the total coal storage of the six power plants along the coast was 15.75 million tons, down 2.45 million tons from the beginning of July, down 1.72 million tons from the beginning of August, down from September. The first drop was 540,000 tons. At present, the daily consumption of coastal power plants is 728,000 tons, up to 140,000 tons more than that of last year, while the days available for coal storage in Datang and Shanghua power plants are reduced to 8 and 9 days respectively.

2. Coal storage in supporting ports decreased.

Before the Daqin Line is repaired, the coal storage in the supporting ports should be the highest. However, at present, the total coal storage in Qinhuangdao and Jingtang Ports is 12.23 million tons, which is 980,000 tons less than that on August 20. Among them, the coal storage in Qinhuangdao Port is 5.47 million tons, which is 670,000 tons less than that on August 20. At present, the overhaul of the Daqin Line has not yet started, and the coal storage in Qinhuangdao Port has dropped to 5.47 million tons; the overhaul is about to begin, and the coal storage in Qingang Port will decline. The shortage of high-quality resources or the reappearance will lead to the rise of coal prices.

3.Upstream shipping is blocked.

Coal mine safety and environmental protection inspections have been continuously strengthened, which has a certain impact on coal production capacity release. Upstream coal tickets and pyrotechnics control is very strict; in addition, TRADERS'shipping costs hang upside down, and their awareness of covering goods is strong. Da-Qin Line has less than 1.2 million tons of daily delivery volume, of which only 6800 coal vehicles enter Qinhuangdao Port daily, far from the normal level of 8,000 vehicles per day. It is anticipated that during the overhaul period, Qinhuangdao Port will maintain an average of about 6500 vehicles per day; during the overhaul period, the coal storage in Qinhuangdao Port will be reduced to less than 5 million tons, and cargo phenomena such as ships will occur. 

4. Implement a level control policy on imported coal.

At present, some regions and customs import quotas of coal are basically exhausted, and some regions have introduced import coal restriction policies. Import coal control is tightened, total import quota control is tightened, customs clearance environment is tightened, and the import coal policy has been tightened continuously under the situation that the national demand for imports is equal to last year's. In the next few months of this year, imports of coal will decrease dramatically every month; once downstream demand picks up, the number of domestic coal hauled by the coastal market is expected to increase. Starting from the end of September, the number of coal hauled vessels arriving at the Bohai Rim Port will increase dramatically.

5. Downstream replenishment is about to start. Throughout the summer, downstream power plants are actively consuming their own stocks and waiting for the price of coal to continue to fall before hauling, resulting in a faster decline in their own stocks; this also leads to a reduction in the number of upstream shipments and the inability of coal-carrying railways and ports to operate at full capacity.

Before winter, just in the good season of periodic replenishment of power plants, when the Daqin Line is being overhauled, the upstream safety inspection is intensified, the traders are not active in shipping, and the imported coal is limited, the demand of coal market rebounds, the supply decreases, and the supply and demand increase and fall one after another, which will cause the periodic tension of the coal market. As a result, coal prices in the port market are likely to soar. It is expected that the coal price in the port market will rise from the end of this month. It will rise until the end of the overhaul of Daqin Line, and the flat warehouse price of power coal in the 5500 cards market is expected to exceed 600 CNY/ton.