August 18 news
August Plasticizer DOP Prices Fluctuate and Rise in China
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of August 18, the DOP price was 9050.83 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.84% from the DOP price of 8800.83 CNY/ton on August 1. The price of isooctanol, a raw material, fluctuated and increased, while the phthalic anhydride price first decreased and then increased. As a result, the cost of DOP raw materials rose, leading to a fluctuating increase in the DOP market.
The price of the raw material iso-octanol first fell and then rose.
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of August 18, the price of isooctanol was 8,333.33 CNY/ton, which first decreased and then increased from the price of 7,900 CNY/ton on August 1, with a price increase of 5.49%. At the end of July, the conflict in the Middle East eased for a while, causing the price of isooctanol to fall from its high; however, with the renewed tensions between the US and Iran, and the continued geopolitical rivalry, international crude oil prices remained at a high level, leading to an initial decrease and then an increase in the upstream propylene price. Additionally, the supply of isooctanol continued to tighten, with plant loads being low. There are also planned maintenance schedules for later, indicating a tight supply outlook. New production capacities are gradually being commissioned, but the equipment utilization rate remains low, resulting in relatively adequate overall supply. The price of isooctanol first decreased and then increased, with growing support from the rising DOP prices.
On the cost side, crude oil and propylene are providing support. At the end of July, tensions in the Middle East eased temporarily, causing isooctanol prices to fall from their high levels; however, as U.S.-Iran relations once again became strained and geopolitical tensions persisted, international crude oil prices remained firmly at high levels, driving upstream propylene prices first to decline and then to rise, while isooctanol prices followed a similar pattern—first falling and then rebounding.
Supply Side: The spot supply of isooctanol remains tight. The spot supply of isooctanol continues to tighten, with plant utilization rates remaining low. Moreover, several units are scheduled for planned maintenance in the coming period, further tightening the supply outlook. Meanwhile, newly commissioned capacity is gradually coming online, but equipment operating rates remain low, resulting in an overall relatively ample supply situation.
In August, the isooctanol market in China remained at a high level due to cost support, but its upward potential was limited by the off-season for demand and the already high prices. In the short term, it will mainly consolidate at a high level. DOP cost support still exists, but the support for price increases is limited.
DOP Market Trend Analysis
Supply side: The industry's operating rate is at a low level in China.
Under cost pressure, many DOP factories in China have reduced production or temporarily halted operations, with the overall industry operating rate falling below 50%, and the capacity utilization rate once dropped to 47%-48%. The active reduction in supply has to some extent alleviated inventory pressure, providing support for the rise in DOP prices.
Widespread losses
Due to the rapid increase in raw material prices, the profitability of DOP producers in China has not improved, and the entire industry remains in a state of loss. This situation of "rising prices but declining profits" has prompted factories to have a strong desire to maintain high prices.
Demand Side: Persistent Weakness
August is still the traditional low season for consumption, with downstream industries such as PVC products experiencing sluggish production and sales. Moreover, in the face of continuously rising high prices, downstream enterprises are not enthusiastic about chasing higher prices and generally maintain small-scale purchases based on their immediate needs, showing a clear resistance to high-priced goods. The downstream demand remains weak.
Market Overview and Future Expectations
Plasticizer product data analysts believe that there is a short-term bullish outlook: due to strong cost support and significant factory losses, it is expected that DOP prices still have room for further increases. However, the biggest constraint is the lack of demand. If prices continue to rise without being absorbed by downstream markets, the market will face pressure to correct. Overall, in the short term, the DOP market in China will maintain a tug-of-war between cost and demand, with "cost-driven increases" and "demand suppressing price increases" jointly determining the future trend of DOP prices.
