Where is the future of coking enterprises with 'up-squeeze and down-pressure'

Near the National Day, the environmental protection policies issued by various places are gradually increasing, and the implementation of the capacity to eliminate production is strengthened. The coal coke market is weakening and faces a downward trend. Once, the coke industry has become one of the most profitable industries, large and small coke enterprises have made a "pot full". Today's coke industry profits move with steel, what causes such a big industrial change? Futures Daily reporter recently held an International Conference on coking technology and coke market in China to explore unexpectedly.

Coke output growth and coke enterprises' benefit move with steel.

In the first half of this year, the coking industry's economic operation is generally stable. The cumulative output of coke in China is 234.2 million tons, up 6.7% year-on-year, especially in June, which reached 10.7%, the highest in recent years. Overall, coke production is driven by steel, and the growth of steel demand has led to the growth of coke production. However, due to the implementation of environmental protection requirements in some areas, the release of production capacity is also limited. At the same time, coke exports declined significantly and prices fell slightly. According to the statistics of the State Customs, the total export volume in the first half of this year was 3.846 million tons, down 19.7% from the same period last year. In June, only 382,000 tons were exported, the lowest since 2018. Journalist of Futures Daily found that coke production increased greatly, but the price declined as a whole, driven by strong demand from steel mills. In June, & gt; 40mm coke price index was 407.68 points, down 31.89 points compared with the same period last year. The "big rise and fall" status of the market remained unchanged, indicating that the coke market is still immature and non-standard. Although the coking industry market price fluctuations, but the industry as a whole to achieve profitability.

At the meeting, Cui Pijiang, president of China Coking Industry Association, said that the fluctuation of coke market prices was due to the low concentration of the coking industry, the serious overcapacity and no essential change in homogenization competition with price as the main means, and the mutual benefit between independent coking enterprises and market users. The win-win relationship has not really been established, and a scientific and reasonable pricing mechanism has not been formed. Thirdly, there are great differences in the enforcement of the restrictions of environmental governance supervision in different regions, as well as the lack of timely grasp of market dynamic information, the regulation process of market supply and demand lags behind. It is well known that the current situation of coking enterprises is low industrial concentration and decentralized distribution, the integration of coal-coke steel industry chain has not formed a community of interests and responsibilities, and the efficient allocation of resources, products and logistics is unreasonable. At the same time, it is urgent and arduous for coking enterprises to meet the energy saving and emission reduction standards. The debt ratio of enterprises is high, the ability of enterprises to sustain profits, and the ability of risk control need to be strengthened urgently. In addition, the stability, maturity and economy of fine coal chemical preparation technology, advanced treatment and reuse technology of coking wastewater and coke oven flue gas desulfurization and denitrification technology need to be tested and improved.

In fact, due to the better profit level of the iron and steel industry in recent two years, which stimulated the higher growth of crude steel output, as well as the partial withdrawal from the re-production of enterprises, the change of the development situation of the iron and steel industry has a direct impact on the coking enterprises. "At present, China's coking market supply and demand situation, production capacity is still in the situation of oversupply, market fluctuations and changes in addition to the stability of the user market, the regulatory impact of environmental compliance will be an important factor. The State Council's three-year action plan on winning the Blue Sky Defense War,"to promote the implementation of ultra-low row steel industry. The change of coke productivity and utilization rate deserves attention. Cui Pijiang said that, especially in North China and East China, the industrial layout was optimized, the coal reduction was adjusted too quickly, and the supply of coke was tight in some periods, which provided support for maintaining the reasonable price of coke. At the meeting, reporters also learned that the reduction of coke demand will gradually emerge with the increase of scrap steel consumption in iron and steel enterprises, which should arouse the necessary attention of coking enterprises. The futures tools can relieve the difficulties of the coal and coke industry. In the coke spot industry chain, each business entity is always facing the risk brought by the price fluctuation. The emergence and application of the coke futures provide a variety of hedging means for the operation and management of the spot enterprise, which can help the enterprise to reduce the operation risk and increase the profit. For the purpose of profit channels and other purposes, it also provides convenience in financing, settlement and so on.

In the coke production, supply and marketing industry chain, intermediate trade links are facing two-way exposures from upstream to downstream, especially the demand for hedging, and the factors that need to be considered are the most comprehensive. Dou Hongzhen, Black Business Department of Yide Futures, introduced that there are more enterprises carrying out coke-based spreads trading nowadays. Every year, there will be some risk-free arbitrage quotations. Enterprises can obtain stable returns by buying spot and selling futures. Of course, the risk of capital occupancy during the trading period is relatively large, so it is necessary to do a good job of capital management in the basis trading. It is worth noting that in the case of tight port inventory, enterprises can also use regional price spreads to optimize the basis trade. From July 17 to 19 this year, the spot coke price was in the period of rising. East China Steel Works took the lead in raising the price. However, due to production restriction, the willingness to increase the price was weak in Tangshan area, and the price difference appeared in different spot areas. At that time, the port stock was 2,000 CNY/ton, Tangshan to the factory was 1,900 CNY/ton, and the regional price difference was 100 CNY/ton. In contrast, the Tangshan area is better than the port in the basis trade. "In addition, Tangshan is in the market, downstream digestibility is strong, enterprises can use regional differences to optimize the basis trade." Dou Hongzhen said.