Shanxi Coking Coal: the market sentiment is pessimistic after the rise and fall

This week, the price of coking coal in Shanxi's main production areas rose and fell, and the price of Liulin's low and medium sulfur main coke fell by 10-30 CNY/ton, while the price of lean coal in Changzhi's individual regional coal enterprises rose by 10-20 CNY/ton in October, and the transmission of some surrounding mines rose; a low sulfur original coal mine in Linfen was in short supply due to the high polarity of coal washing plant's purchase, and the transaction price rose by 20 CNY/ton. High sulfur and high-quality resources are on the waiting list for the time being. The sales pressure of inventory accumulation of Luliang mine is relatively large, and the expectation may be lowered in the short term. In terms of production, the starting of sample coal washing plants and coal mines in Shanxi area investigated this week showed a steady weakening trend. The number of independent coal washing plants resumed production this week was large, but the output of some large mines decreased significantly compared with last week due to underground conditions and other reasons, and the output of many coal enterprises including Liulin was relatively low.

In terms of inventory, the sample of 3.3533 million tons of raw coal from 110 coal washing plants decreased by 141300 tons on a month on month basis last week, and the output of 1.9625 million tons of clean coal increased by 56300 tons on a month on month basis last week. From the overall market, this week's black industry chain market is relatively low, the downstream demand is weak, the sales of clean coal is generally general, the delivery of large mines in Shanxi and Shandong is poor, and some of them may fall further due to the consideration of sales base. On the downstream side, this week, steel mills began to tentatively reduce 50-100 CNY/ton. In order to resist the risk of price reduction, some coke enterprises began to increase, and the game between coke and steel intensified in the short term. In terms of the port situation, in recent two days, with the increase of the decline in the market, the trade mentality is pessimistic, the port resources are reduced by a larger margin, the transaction is less optimistic, and the short-term coke price is weak. On the whole, at present, when the coke steel profits are equal and the steel prices are weak, the coke price rise does not have mature conditions, and the probability of falling is large. If the coke price falls, some high sulfur high-quality coal types in Shanxi may also fall under pressure, and the coking coal operates in a low range.